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Published: 17 June 2026,02:06
Daily Market Analysis New
*US dollar remains near its lower range as falling oil prices ease inflation concerns
*Lower Treasury yields reduce short-term Fed rate hike expectations
*FOMC decision remains the key risk event for dollar and gold direction
The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, remained near its lower range as falling oil prices helped stabilize inflation expectations. With energy prices easing, markets reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates in the short term, pushing U.S. Treasury yields lower and weighing on the dollar.
However, the dollar still faces major event risk later this week, with investors closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The meeting will be the first key policy test under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, making it an important signal for future monetary policy direction.
Markets will be focused on whether Warsh maintains a more independent and higher-for-longer policy stance in response to recent inflation data, or whether he leans closer to President Trump’s preference for lower interest rates. A hawkish tone could help the dollar recover, while a softer policy message may keep the greenback under pressure.
Gold prices continued to edge higher as the weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields supported demand for the non-yielding metal. The recent decline in oil prices has also reduced inflation concerns, easing expectations for further aggressive monetary tightening and providing short-term support for gold.
However, gold is currently testing a key consolidation resistance zone, which may limit upside momentum ahead of the FOMC decision. Traders may avoid taking aggressive positions before receiving clearer guidance from the Fed.
Overall, the near-term outlook for both the dollar and gold will depend heavily on the Fed’s policy tone. A hawkish statement could strengthen the dollar and pressure gold lower again, while a softer tone may support further upside for the precious metal.
Technical Analysis
Gold prices are trading higher and are currently approaching the 4,345.00 resistance level, a key near-term breakout zone.
However, momentum indicators are showing signs of moderation. The MACD is losing bullish strength, while the RSI at 59 is retreating from higher levels, suggesting the possibility of a short-term technical correction.
If gold fails to break above 4,345.00, prices may retrace toward the 4,185.00 support level, followed by 4,040.00 if selling pressure increases.
Conversely, a confirmed breakout above 4,345.00 could open the path for further gains toward 4,580.00, reinforcing the bullish structure.
Resistance Levels: 4345.00, 4580.00
Support Levels: 4185.00, 4040.00
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