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Published: 31 July 2026,06:18
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*Oil remained volatile, but Brent and WTI stayed on track for ~20% monthly gains despite recent profit-taking.
*US-Iran tensions and supply disruption risks continued to support crude prices and maintain a geopolitical risk premium.
*Saudi Arabia’s proposed maritime coalition and steady tanker traffic helped ease immediate shipping concerns.
Crude oil prices remained highly volatile as traders balanced escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East against signs that global energy shipments continue to flow through critical maritime routes. Although Brent and WTI retreated after Wednesday’s sharp rally, both benchmarks remained on course for monthly gains of around 20%, reflecting a significant geopolitical risk premium driven by the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Renewed US airstrikes on Iranian military targets, continued missile exchanges, attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, and a drone strike that damaged gas vessels at Egypt’s Damietta Port reinforced concerns over supply security across the region.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia proposed a multinational maritime defence coalition involving 14 countries to strengthen security in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Red Sea, and Gulf of Aden, helping ease immediate fears of widespread shipping disruptions. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz also continued despite heightened security risks, while discussions involving Oman and Iran over the future management of the strategic waterway raised cautious optimism that export routes could remain operational. These developments encouraged profit-taking after oil briefly surged above recent highs, with Brent settling near US$89 and WTI around US$83–84.
Despite the recent pullback, the broader outlook for oil remains supported by tightening supply conditions and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. US commercial crude inventories have fallen to multi-year lows, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve continues to decline, while fresh disruptions at Russia’s Lukoil refinery and loading operations at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium added further supply concerns. Meanwhile, higher freight costs, rising insurance premiums, and ongoing threats from Iran-backed Houthi militants continue to embed a sizeable geopolitical risk premium into energy markets. Investors will closely monitor developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, further US-Iran military actions, and any progress in regional diplomatic negotiations, as these remain the primary catalysts for crude prices in the near term.
Technical Analysis
Crude Oil, H4:
Crude oil remains in a broader recovery trend, but the recent rally has lost momentum after failing to sustain gains above the 90.00–93.10 resistance zone. Price has pulled back sharply from the recent peak and briefly tested the 78.05 support level before rebounding toward the 85.00 area. The recovery suggests buyers are attempting to stabilize the market, but price remains below the broken short-term ascending trendline and the 87.25 resistance level, indicating that the bullish structure has weakened.
Momentum indicators are showing early signs of improvement, although confirmation remains limited. RSI has rebounded to around 49 and moved back above its moving average, suggesting that selling pressure has eased and momentum is gradually recovering. Meanwhile, MACD has turned higher, with the histogram moving back into positive territory and the MACD line attempting to cross above the signal line. However, both indicators remain relatively weak compared with the earlier bullish phase, indicating that the rebound may still face resistance. Overall, crude oil is attempting to recover following a sharp correction, but the near-term outlook remains neutral to cautiously bearish
Resistance Levels: 87.60, 95.80
Support Levels: 78.05, 68.90
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