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Published: 15 June 2026,09:26
Daily Market Analysis New
*Markets overwhelmingly expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, following three consecutive rate hikes earlier this year.
*With inflation still elevated but economic activity showing signs of moderation, the RBA is expected to pause and evaluate the effects of recent tightening on growth, employment, and price pressures.
*While a rate hold is largely priced in, market reaction will depend on the RBA’s tone. A hawkish message could support the Australian dollar, while a more dovish outlook may boost risk assets and weigh on AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to announce its Monetary Policy Board decision on Tuesday, June 16, 2026. Market consensus and economist surveys strongly anticipate that the RBA will keep the official cash rate unchanged at 4.35%. This follows three consecutive 25 basis point hikes in the first half of 2026 (February, March, and May), which lifted the rate from 3.85% earlier in the year.
The recent tightening cycle was driven by persistent inflation pressures, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that pushed fuel and commodity prices higher. With the cash rate now at 4.35%, the RBA has indicated it has created sufficient policy space to assess incoming data on inflation, labour market conditions, and economic activity before considering further adjustments.
Economists from major institutions, including CBA, NAB, and ANZ, largely expect a pause in June, allowing time to evaluate the lagged effects of prior hikes amid a cooling economy and moderating demand. While some divergence remains — with Westpac holding a more hawkish view — futures pricing and Reuters polls show near-unanimous expectations for no change, reflecting confidence that current settings are appropriate to guide inflation back toward the 2-3% target band over time.
Near-term implications include continued stability for borrowers and financial markets in the immediate aftermath, assuming the decision aligns with expectations. Any hawkish surprises in the accompanying statement or Governor’s remarks could pressure the Australian dollar and bond yields higher, while a dovish tilt might support risk assets. The decision will be closely watched alongside global developments, including U.S. data and ongoing geopolitical dynamics.
Technical Analysis
AUD/NZD has successfully found support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.2046 following a recent pullback. The pair’s ability to defend this key support zone suggests that the correction was merely a technical retracement within a broader uptrend, reinforcing the bullish outlook for AUD/NZD.
The strong reaction from the Fibonacci support level indicates that buyers remain active in the market and that the underlying upward momentum remains intact. As long as the pair continues to hold above the 1.2046 support zone, the prevailing uptrend structure is expected to remain valid.
Looking ahead, AUD/NZD appears poised to extend its bullish advance. However, the immediate challenge lies near the 1.2136 resistance level, where a notable liquidity zone has been identified. This area could attract increased selling interest and may temporarily cap further gains as market participants react to the concentration of pending orders around the resistance zone.
Should the pair encounter resistance at 1.2136, a period of consolidation or a minor pullback may occur. Nevertheless, a decisive breakout above this level would represent a significant bullish development and confirm the continuation of the broader uptrend.
A successful move through the 1.2136 resistance zone could trigger additional buying momentum and open the door for a stronger rally toward higher resistance levels, further validating the bullish bias.
Resistance Levels: 1.2136, 1.2235
Support Levels: 1.2053, 1.1980
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