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Oil Surges on Escalating U.S.–Iran Tensions; Volatility Set to Persist

Published: 2 April 2026,06:15

Daily Market Analysis New

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Key Takeaways:

*Oil spikes sharply on renewed U.S.–Iran escalation fears

*Trump signals potential aggressive military action in coming weeks

*Market doubts persist, with risk of Iranian retaliation rising

Market Summary:

Crude oil prices surged sharply, rising by more than 6,000 points, as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran reignited fears of supply disruptions across global energy markets.

The latest rally was driven by heightened geopolitical risks after Donald Trump stated that the U.S. would “very soon finish the job” in Iran, while also claiming that U.S. operations in the region had been completed successfully. Despite these remarks, market participants remain cautious, with many questioning the sustainability of the current situation and the likelihood of further escalation.

Concerns intensified after Trump warned of potential aggressive military action against Iran within the next two to three weeks, stating that the U.S. would respond “extremely hard.” The comments have dampened expectations of near-term de-escalation, reinforcing fears that the conflict could broaden further.

At the same time, Trump suggested that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen soon, which has provided limited relief to markets concerned about supply disruptions. He also emphasized that the United States maintains sufficient domestic oil supply, reducing its dependence on the strait. However, these reassurances have done little to calm broader market concerns, as investors remain focused on the risk of retaliation from Iran.

The possibility of Iran responding with more aggressive measures — particularly targeting regional energy infrastructure or shipping routes — continues to underpin volatility in oil markets. As a result, crude prices are likely to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines.

Overall, with uncertainties still elevated and no clear resolution in sight, oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the near term, with market participants closely monitoring developments from both sides for clearer directional signals.

Technical Analysis

image – PU Prime | More Than Trading — image

CL-Oil, H4

Crude oil prices are trading higher after a strong rebound from the 98.05 support level, maintaining a short-term bullish trend.

Momentum indicators remain supportive, with the MACD strengthening and the RSI at 64 above the midline, suggesting continued upside potential.

In the near term, prices could extend gains toward the 106.65 resistance level, with further upside toward 115.70 if momentum persists.

However, if bullish momentum begins to fade or profit-taking emerges, prices may retrace toward the 101.55 support level, which serves as a key near-term floor.

Resistance Levels: 106.65, 115.70
Support Levels: 101.55, 98.05

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