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Published: 8 July 2026,09:33
Daily Market Analysis New
*Crude oil rallied more than 5% after U.S. strikes on Iranian military targets intensified fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
*Attacks on commercial oil tankers and renewed U.S. sanctions on Iran have revived the geopolitical risk premium, raising concerns over potential disruptions to global crude supplies.
*Crude oil is expected to stay highly volatile, with further escalation likely supporting higher prices, while developments involving OPEC+ and global demand will determine the market’s next direction.
The crude oil market remains highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, particularly amid escalating tensions involving Iran and the United States. Recent events have underscored the critical vulnerability of global energy supply chains, centered on the Strait of Hormuz, which handles approximately 20-30% of the world’s seaborne crude oil and significant LNG volumes.
Overnight, oil prices surged more than 5% following U.S. strikes on Iranian military targets in response to Iranian attacks on commercial oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. These incidents, involving vessels such as Qatari and Saudi-flagged tankers, have disrupted shipping traffic and heightened fears of broader supply interruptions. Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks reacted sharply, with recent trading sessions showing Brent around $72-76 per barrel and WTI near $70-72, reflecting volatility driven by risk premiums.
The Iranian actions, attributed to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have effectively threatened freedom of navigation in this vital chokepoint. In retaliation, the U.S. has reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil exports and conducted targeted strikes, further tightening market sentiment. This dynamic exacerbates existing supply concerns, as any sustained disruption could remove millions of barrels per day from global markets, particularly affecting Asian importers like China, India, Japan, and South Korea.
Market participants are closely monitoring potential escalation risks, including impacts on production from Gulf Cooperation Council states. While some recovery in flows has been noted in prior de-escalation phases, renewed hostilities have revived upside pressure on prices. Factors such as OPEC+ production decisions, U.S. shale output, and global demand trends will interact with these geopolitical developments. Investors should anticipate continued volatility, with hedging strategies and diversified exposure recommended in energy portfolios.
Technical Analysis
WTI has staged a strong recovery after spending nearly a week consolidating at its lowest level since February. The prolonged period of sideways trading has now been resolved to the upside, with crude oil breaking above its consolidation range and rallying by more than 5% in the previous session.
The breakout marks a significant technical development, suggesting that the recent bearish phase may have come to an end and that bullish momentum is beginning to build. The strong advance indicates renewed buying interest, with market participants regaining confidence following the successful defense of key support levels.
Momentum indicators also reinforce the improving technical outlook. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has crossed above the zero line, confirming that bullish momentum is strengthening and that buyers are gaining control of the market. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into overbought territory, reflecting the strength of the recent rally and the aggressive buying pressure behind the breakout.
From a technical perspective, the next key resistance level is located near $77.50. A sustained move toward this area would further validate the bullish reversal and could encourage additional upside momentum if buyers continue to dominate.
Resistance Levels: 77.50, 84.80
Support Levels: 69.80, 62.60
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