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Published: 17 June 2026,02:19
Daily Market Analysis New
*Markets continue to digest positive developments in U.S.–Iran negotiations
*Expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz reduces supply disruption concerns
*Crude oil breaks below the $80 level as geopolitical risk premium unwinds
Global markets continued to digest positive developments between the United States and Iran, with both sides expected to formally sign a Memorandum of Understanding on Friday in Switzerland. The agreement is expected to include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while a second stage of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program will reportedly begin afterward and last for 60 days.
Although details remain limited, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the MoU would include commitments preventing Tehran from developing nuclear capabilities. Markets are also considering the possibility that sanctions on Iran could eventually be eased, which may allow more Iranian oil supply to return to the global market.
The prospect of improving U.S.–Iran relations has further pressured oil prices while improving broader risk sentiment. A potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would reduce fears of prolonged energy shortages and ease concerns over global supply disruptions.
Crude oil prices slumped below the $80 psychological level and broke below a key support zone as traders priced in reduced geopolitical risks. The expected reopening of one of the world’s most important energy corridors has prompted investors to unwind part of the risk premium that had supported crude prices in recent weeks.
In addition, the possibility of future sanctions relief on Iran could add more supply to the market, further limiting upside momentum for oil prices. If Iranian exports gradually return, global supply conditions may improve and reduce pressure on energy prices.
However, the agreement has not yet been formally signed, and details remain vague. Therefore, while oil’s near-term bias has turned softer, traders are likely to remain cautious until the deal is finalized and actual shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz begin normalizing.
Overall, crude oil remains highly sensitive to diplomatic developments between Washington and Tehran. A confirmed agreement could extend downside pressure on oil prices, while any delay or disagreement could quickly revive supply disruption fears.
Technical Analysis
Crude Oil, H4:
Crude oil prices are trading lower after a breakdown below the previous 79.20 support level, confirming a bearish short-term structure.
However, downside momentum appears to be easing. The MACD shows diminishing bearish momentum, while the RSI at 24 has entered oversold territory, suggesting the possibility of a short-term technical rebound.
If selling pressure fades, crude oil may rebound and retest 79.20 as resistance, followed by 86.65 if recovery momentum strengthens.
However, if bearish pressure persists, prices could extend losses toward the next support at 70.70, with further downside toward 67.95.
Resistance Levels: 79.20, 86.65
Support Levels: 70.70, 67.95
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