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Published: 21 April 2026,07:41
Daily Market Analysis New
*U.S.–Iran tensions remain unresolved ahead of ceasefire deadline
*Strait of Hormuz developments continue to drive market sentiment
*Oil prices edge lower on renewed negotiation hopes
Market Summary:
Crude oil prices edged lower as markets adopted a cautious tone ahead of a key U.S.–Iran meeting later this week, which will determine whether the current ceasefire agreement will be extended.
Geopolitical developments remain highly fluid. Optimism briefly improved after Tehran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on Friday. However, sentiment reversed over the weekend as Iran reportedly re-closed the strait, while U.S. forces intercepted and seized an Iranian tanker heading toward China, highlighting the fragile nature of the ceasefire.
Despite these tensions, there are tentative signs that Iran may be willing to return to negotiations, fostering cautious optimism ahead of the upcoming deadline. Attention is now focused on whether both sides can resume talks in Pakistan following an earlier round in Islamabad that ended without a deal.
Donald Trump has indicated that the United States is unlikely to extend the ceasefire unless a formal agreement is reached before its expiry on Wednesday. This has kept market sentiment subdued, with investors largely maintaining a wait-and-see approach.
Against this backdrop, oil prices have softened slightly, as expectations of renewed negotiations have helped ease immediate fears of supply disruption. However, with uncertainty still elevated and the Strait of Hormuz remaining a key risk factor, price movements are likely to remain sensitive to incoming headlines.
Overall, the oil market remains driven by geopolitical developments, with traders closely monitoring ceasefire negotiations for clearer direction on oil price outlook and global supply risks.
Technical Analysis
CL-Oil, H4
Crude oil prices are trading sideways, currently testing the 86.90 resistance level, which acts as a key near-term breakout zone.
Momentum is gradually improving, with the MACD strengthening and the RSI at 43 recovering from lower levels, suggesting potential upside if a breakout occurs.
A confirmed move above 86.90 could extend gains toward 93.15.
However, if momentum fails to sustain, prices may pull back toward the 79.85 support level, with further downside toward 74.50.
Resistance Levels: 86.90, 93.15
Support Levels: 79.85, 74.50
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