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Published: 14 May 2026,09:01
Daily Market Analysis New
*Oil prices remain supported by ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions
*Falling U.S. crude inventories reinforce supply-tightening concerns
*Stronger US dollar limits upside momentum in crude prices
*Markets closely monitor U.S.–China meeting and U.S.–Iran developments
Crude oil prices continued to consolidate, with oil trading near a one-week high as ongoing disruptions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continued tightening global supply conditions. While a stronger U.S. dollar limited some upside momentum in crude prices, the broader market remained supported by persistent geopolitical tensions and signs of tightening inventories.
Recent weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provided additional support for the energy market after both crude oil and gasoline inventories declined by more than expected. The sharper-than-anticipated drawdown reinforced concerns that global supply conditions remain fragile amid ongoing shipping disruptions and geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
Oil prices also remained elevated after Donald Trump and Iran rejected each other’s latest peace proposals aimed at ending the ongoing conflict. Trump described Iran’s latest response as a “piece of garbage” and warned that the current ceasefire remained on “life support,” adding that Iran would either agree to a deal or face severe consequences. Trump also indicated that the United States could restart naval operations as soon as this week to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz using naval and air support.
Despite the tensions, markets are also watching for potential diplomatic progress. Investors are closely focused on the upcoming U.S.–China meeting in Beijing, where Trump is expected to become the first U.S. leader in nearly a decade to visit China under such heightened geopolitical conditions. The discussions are expected to cover not only future U.S.–China trade relations, but also broader geopolitical issues including the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict and global energy security.
Market participants believe the meeting could become a critical turning point for global risk sentiment. Any failure to achieve progress could further intensify geopolitical tensions, worsen the global economic outlook, and reignite concerns over energy supply disruptions, potentially driving oil prices higher again.
Overall, crude oil prices remain trapped between opposing forces, with supply disruption risks and geopolitical tensions supporting the market, while a stronger dollar and hopes for diplomatic progress continue to limit aggressive upside momentum.
Technical Analysis
Crude oil prices are trading higher after a breakout above the 98.55 resistance level, reinforcing a bullish market structure.
However, momentum indicators are beginning to soften. The MACD is showing diminishing bullish momentum, while the RSI at 54 is forming a bearish crossover, suggesting a potential near-term technical correction.
If selling pressure increases, prices may retest the 98.55 support level, with further downside toward 91.00 if bearish momentum accelerates.
Conversely, if bearish momentum fails to sustain, crude oil may resume its upward move toward the 104.65 resistance level, followed by 110.70 if bullish continuation strengthens.
Resistance Levels: 104.65, 110.70
Support Levels: 98.55, 91.00
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