24/7 SUPPORT
Download App
Published: 25 June 2026,06:44
Daily Market Analysis New
*Gold falls below the psychological $4,000 level for the first time since November 2025
*Stronger US dollar and rising rate expectations pressure non-yielding bullion
*Hawkish Fed signals reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy
Gold prices fell below the psychological level of $4,000 for the first time since November 2025, pressured by a resurgent US dollar and growing expectations that interest rates may remain elevated for longer. The move reflected a broader shift in market sentiment as investors reduced exposure to non-yielding assets amid rising Treasury yields and tighter policy expectations.
Federal Reserve officials have continued to signal support for a more restrictive monetary policy stance, while new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh adopted a hawkish tone at his first rate-setting meeting last week. Higher borrowing costs increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, making the precious metal less attractive compared with yield-bearing assets.
Another key driver behind gold’s previous rally, the so-called debasement trade, has also started losing momentum. Strong AI-related investment flows and the US economy’s relatively favorable energy position have strengthened the dollar’s appeal compared with energy-importing economies in Europe and Asia.
The Dollar Index continued to edge higher after Warsh’s hawkish remarks reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep policy tight or even consider further rate hikes if inflation remains persistent. This has supported demand for the greenback and added further downside pressure on gold.
Investors are now closely watching the upcoming US Core PCE Price Index, which will be a crucial catalyst for the Fed’s next policy move. A stronger-than-expected reading could further support the dollar and pressure gold lower, while softer inflation data may ease rate-hike expectations and provide short-term relief for precious metals.
Overall, gold’s near-term outlook remains under pressure as long as the dollar stays firm and Treasury yields remain elevated. Unless inflation data cools meaningfully or risk sentiment deteriorates sharply, bullion may struggle to regain strong upside momentum.
Technical Analysis
DXY, H4:
The dollar index is trading higher, currently testing the 100.90 resistance level, which acts as a key near-term breakout zone.
A confirmed breakout above 100.90 could extend gains toward the next resistance at 101.85, reinforcing the bullish structure.
However, momentum indicators are showing signs of exhaustion. The MACD is losing bullish momentum, while the RSI at 73 has entered overbought territory, suggesting an increased risk of a near-term technical correction.
If bullish momentum fails to sustain, the index may retrace toward the 100.10 support level, with further downside toward 99.50 if selling pressure intensifies.
Resistance Levels: 100.90, 101.85
Support Levels: 100.10, 99.50
GOLD, H4:
Gold prices are trading lower after a breakdown below the previous 4,235.00 support level, confirming a bearish short-term structure.
Momentum indicators continue to support the downside bias. The MACD is strengthening in bearish territory, while the RSI at 36 remains below the midline, suggesting selling pressure may persist.
If bearish momentum continues, gold could extend losses toward the next support at 4,075.00, followed by 4,000.00 if downside pressure accelerates.
However, if bearish momentum begins to fade, gold may stage a technical rebound and retest the 4,235.00 resistance level, with further upside toward 4,370.00 if recovery strengthens.
Resistance Levels: 4235.00, 4370.00
Support Levels: 4075.00, 4000.00
Trade forex, indices, metal, and more at industry-low spreads and lightning-fast execution.
Sign up for a PU Prime Live Account with our hassle-free process.
Effortlessly fund your account with a wide range of channels and accepted currencies.
Access hundreds of instruments under market-leading trading conditions.
Trading Platforms
Learn
About PU Prime
Corporate
Please note the Website is intended for individuals residing in jurisdictions where accessing the Website is permitted by law.
Please note that PU Prime and its affiliated entities are neither established nor operating in your home jurisdiction.
By clicking the "Acknowledge" button, you confirm that you are entering this website solely based on your initiative and not as a result of any specific marketing outreach. You wish to obtain information from this website which is provided on reverse solicitation in accordance with the laws of your home jurisdiction.
Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!
Ten en cuenta que el sitio web está destinado a personas que residen en jurisdicciones donde el acceso al sitio web está permitido por la ley.
Ten en cuenta que PU Prime y sus entidades afiliadas no están establecidas ni operan en tu jurisdicción de origen.
Al hacer clic en el botón "Aceptar", confirmas que estás ingresando a este sitio web por tu propia iniciativa y no como resultado de ningún esfuerzo de marketing específico. Deseas obtener información de este sitio web que se proporciona mediante solicitud inversa de acuerdo con las leyes de tu jurisdicción de origen.
Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!
