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Market Insights > Daily Market Analysis New

Dollar Rebounds on Fed Inflation Concerns; Gold Eases on Profit-Taking

Published: 9 April 2026,05:55

Daily Market Analysis New

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Key Takeaways:

*Dollar edges higher as Fed flags inflation risks from Iran conflict

*FOMC minutes highlight potential need for further rate hikes

*Ceasefire optimism briefly weighed on dollar, but tensions remain uncertain

*Gold pulls back on profit-taking and rising rate expectations

Market Summary:

The U.S. dollar rebounded modestly as growing concerns among Federal Reserve officials over inflation risks linked to the Iran conflict reinforced expectations that interest rates may need to remain elevated.

The dollar index — which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies — found support after minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s March meeting indicated that policymakers are increasingly focused on the inflationary impact of geopolitical tensions. The minutes showed that officials debated a range of economic scenarios following the escalation of the Iran conflict, with several participants highlighting the risk that rising energy prices could sustain inflationary pressures and potentially warrant further rate increases.

These signals have prompted markets to reassess the trajectory of monetary policy, strengthening the dollar after its recent pullback. The earlier decline in the greenback had been driven by optimism surrounding ceasefire developments, which temporarily eased inflation concerns. However, renewed uncertainty and the risk of re-escalation have kept the longer-term outlook for the dollar more balanced.

Meanwhile, gold prices retraced following a recent rally, as investors engaged in profit-taking and technical adjustments. The pullback was further reinforced by renewed expectations of higher interest rates, which tend to weigh on non-yielding assets such as gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding them.

Overall, markets remain sensitive to both monetary policy signals and geopolitical developments, with the balance between inflation risks and safe-haven demand continuing to shape movements in both the dollar and gold.

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

The dollar index is trading higher, currently testing the 99.10 resistance level, which acts as a key near-term breakout point.

Momentum indicators are improving, with the MACD strengthening and the RSI rebounding to 50 from oversold levels, suggesting recovering bullish momentum.

A confirmed breakout above 99.10 could extend gains toward the next resistance at 99.70.

However, if bullish momentum fails to sustain, the index may retrace toward the 98.50 support level, with further downside toward 98.00 if selling pressure builds.

Resistance Levels: 99.10, 99.70

Support Levels: 98.50, 98.00

XAU/USD, H4

Gold prices are trading lower, currently testing the 4,700.00 support level, which serves as a key near-term floor.

A confirmed breakdown below the 4,700.00–4,705.00 zone could accelerate losses toward 4,610.00, aligning with the lower boundary of the ascending channel.

Momentum remains bearish, with the RSI below 40 and under the midline, indicating sustained downside pressure. However, the MACD is showing diminishing bearish momentum, suggesting a potential near-term technical rebound if selling pressure fades.

Resistance Levels: 4785.00, 4840.00

Support Levels: 4700.00, 4610.00

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