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Published: 7 July 2026,06:19
Daily Market Analysis New
*US Dollar Index consolidates as markets await clearer Fed policy direction
*Traders now see a higher probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged this month
*Gold remains range-bound as investors wait for fresh signals from FOMC minutes
The Dollar Index continued to consolidate after its recent bullish momentum faded, as market participants waited for greater clarity on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path before placing fresh directional bets.
The weaker-than-expected U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report has prompted traders to reassess the likelihood of further Fed tightening. At the same time, oil prices have fully unwound their U.S.–Iran war-driven rally, helping ease inflation concerns and reducing pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates in the near term.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in a 77% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at this month’s meeting. Meanwhile, the probability of a rate hike at the September meeting has fallen to 56%, down from 63% before the U.S. jobs report was released.
With rate hike expectations cooling, the dollar has struggled to extend its previous gains. However, downside remains limited as investors continue to wait for further confirmation from upcoming labor market data and Fed communications.
The U.S. economic calendar is relatively light this week, with the ADP Employment Change report due on Tuesday and weekly Initial Jobless Claims scheduled for Thursday. Investors will also closely watch the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday for fresh clues on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.
Gold prices also remained in consolidation as investors waited for clearer signals on the Fed’s interest rate outlook. A softer dollar and lower rate-hike expectations provide some support for gold, but improving risk sentiment and easing geopolitical concerns have limited stronger safe-haven demand.
Overall, both the dollar and gold are likely to remain range-bound in the near term as markets await the next major Fed policy signal. A more hawkish tone from the FOMC minutes could support the dollar and pressure gold, while softer guidance may weaken the greenback and provide short-term support for bullion.
Technical Analysis
GOLD, H1:
Gold prices are trading lower after retracing from the 4,205.00 resistance level, indicating renewed downside pressure within the current trading range.
Momentum indicators remain bearish, with the MACD showing increasing bearish momentum and the RSI at 43 staying below the midline, suggesting that gold may extend its losses toward the 4,085.00 support level.
However, if bearish momentum fails to persist, gold could stage a technical rebound and retest the 4,205.00 resistance level.
In the short term, due to the lack of clear fundamental catalysts, gold is likely to remain range-bound between the 4,085.00 support and 4,205.00 resistance levels
Resistance Levels: 4205.00, 4320.00
Support Levels: 4085.00, 3960.00
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