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Published: 24 June 2026,06:10
Daily Market Analysis New
*Oil prices remained under pressure as progress in US-Iran peace talks eased fears of major supply disruptions.
*A temporary sanctions waiver and improving diplomatic relations have raised expectations for increased Iranian crude exports.
*The resumption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has reduced concerns over shipping bottlenecks and strengthened confidence in global energy flows.
Oil prices remain under sustained pressure as improving geopolitical conditions in the Middle East continue to reduce concerns over global supply disruptions. Both WTI and Brent have retreated toward four-month lows, with WTI trading around US$72–73 per barrel and Brent near US$76–77. The dominant driver has been significant progress in US-Iran peace negotiations, including a temporary 60-day sanctions waiver that could allow additional Iranian crude to enter global markets and ongoing discussions aimed at normalising shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Market sentiment has improved further as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed, with vessels increasingly operating openly and international shipping agencies confirming enhanced safety conditions. Reports that stranded ships are gradually exiting the Persian Gulf and that Iran and Oman are discussing long-term administration of Hormuz have eased fears of prolonged logistical disruptions. While conflicting comments between US and Iranian officials regarding nuclear inspection agreements highlight that negotiations remain fragile, traders have nevertheless reduced much of the geopolitical risk premium previously embedded in oil prices.
Additional pressure has come from the stronger US dollar, which makes crude more expensive for foreign buyers and can weigh on global demand. At the same time, markets are balancing improving supply expectations against relatively supportive inventory data. The latest API figures showed another decline in US crude inventories, indicating underlying demand remains healthy, although this has been overshadowed by broader macro developments. Looking ahead, further diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran could encourage prices to move closer to pre-conflict levels, while any setback in negotiations or renewed shipping disruptions could quickly reverse recent losses.
Technical Analysis
Crude Oil, H4:
Crude oil remains under significant bearish pressure with price continuing to trade near its recent lows after failing to stage a meaningful recovery above key resistance levels. The broader structure remains characterized by lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing the prevailing downtrend.
Recent price action shows oil consolidating just above the critical 72.45 support level following an extended selloff from the 96.95 region. The inability of buyers to generate a stronger rebound after reaching oversold conditions suggests weak underlying demand, while repeated failures near the 73.15–78.50 resistance area continue to favor sellers.
Momentum indicators remain broadly bearish. RSI is holding near 32, hovering just above oversold territory and indicating that downside momentum remains dominant despite some stabilization in recent sessions. Meanwhile, MACD remains below the zero line, with both MACD and signal lines flattening after the recent decline. While this suggests bearish momentum is slowing, there is still no convincing bullish crossover to indicate a sustainable trend reversal.Overall, the short-term outlook remains bearish as crude oil continues to trade near multi-week lows and below all major resistance levels.
Resistance Levels: 76.80, 84.05
Support Levels: 66.70, 57.85
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