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Published: 15 April 2026,05:39
Daily Market Analysis New
*The upcoming release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics will be pivotal, with strong jobs data reinforcing the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
*A solid employment print could strengthen expectations of further tightening, while a softer result may signal early labour market cooling but is unlikely to trigger a dovish shift.
*The Aussie dollar remains data-sensitive, with upside supported by RBA policy expectations, but volatility persists amid shifting Middle East tensions and oil price dynamics.
*Gold rebounds on weaker dollar and declining Treasury yields
Market Summary:
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the March 2026 Labour Force data tomorrow, April 16. This release carries heightened importance as the Reserve Bank of Australia remains one of the most hawkish central banks among G10 peers, with the cash rate at 4.10% following two 25bp hikes earlier in 2026. The RBA continues to monitor labour market tightness closely as a key gauge of domestic inflationary pressures, especially amid energy-cost risks from the Middle East.
Consensus forecasts point to a resilient but moderating outcome: employment growth of approximately +25,000 (broadly in line with recent trends) and the unemployment rate steady-to-slightly lower at 4.2–4.3%, following February’s rise to 4.3%. A stronger-than-expected print—particularly in full-time jobs or participation—would affirm the RBA’s assessment of a still-tight labour market, reinforcing expectations of possible further tightening later in 2026 to anchor inflation. Conversely, a softer result would signal emerging slack and could ease near-term hawkish pressure, though the RBA’s inflation vigilance is likely to limit any dovish pivot.
The Aussie dollar faces a mixed but data-sensitive backdrop. RBA hawkishness provides underlying support, yet ongoing Middle East geopolitical developments introduce volatility. Recent de-escalation signals and the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports have seen Brent crude retreat below $98/bbl, easing immediate imported inflation risks and supporting risk sentiment. Australia, as a commodity exporter, typically benefits from stable-to-higher oil prices, but prolonged disruptions could weigh on domestic growth via higher costs and weaker global demand.
Domestically, the labour market has remained resilient (unemployment still well below historical averages) but shows early cooling signals consistent with slower GDP growth forecasts. Strong jobs data tomorrow would likely lift AUD/USD via firmer rate expectations; a miss could cap gains or prompt modest downside. Overall, expect choppy, headline-driven trading in the near term, with AUD/USD likely confined to the 0.7000 range. Upside risks stem from sustained RBA hawkishness and commodity tailwinds; downside risks arise from any escalation in the Gulf or softer domestic momentum.
Technical Analysis
The AUDUSD pair has broken decisively above its previous downtrend channel, marking a significant shift in market structure following weeks of corrective pressure. The breakout has brought the pair to the critical 0.7150 resistance level—a threshold that previously triggered a massive sell-off, underscoring its importance as a technical and psychological barrier.
The 0.7150 level represents a major inflection point. A sustained breakout above this resistance would constitute a strong bullish signal, positioning the pair for a rally to multiple-year highs. The measured move from the channel breakout projects further upside toward the 0.7150-0.7200 region, with the 0.7300 psychological level serving as an intermediate target.
Momentum indicators support the constructive outlook. The Relative Strength Index is trending higher in bullish territory, reflecting building buying pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence has crossed above its zero line, confirming that positive momentum is taking hold. The alignment between price action and momentum oscillators provides credible evidence for the bullish bias.
Immediate support is now established near the broken downtrend channel, with a deeper support at the 0.7050-0.7070 zone. A sustained hold above these levels is required to maintain the bullish structure.
Resistance Levels: 0.7225, 0.7300
Support Levels: 0.7030, 0.6935
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