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Published: 3 August 2026,06:25
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*Oil prices fell sharply after Trump signaled fresh talks with Iran
*Markets reduced supply disruption fears as hopes for reopening the Strait of Hormuz improved
*Brent crude dropped as much as 7.3% as traders unwound geopolitical risk premium
Crude oil prices moved sharply lower after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled that fresh negotiations with Iran would begin, raising hopes that both sides could reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The shift from military escalation toward diplomacy encouraged traders to reduce the geopolitical risk premium that had supported oil prices in recent weeks.
Brent crude for October fell as much as 7.3% to $81.55 per barrel after Trump said he had agreed to call off a major planned attack on Iran. The decision reportedly came after key Middle East allies, including Saudi Arabia, urged Washington to pursue a negotiated solution instead of further military action.
The market reaction reflected a sharp improvement in supply sentiment. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes, and any progress toward reopening or stabilising traffic through the waterway would significantly reduce fears of prolonged supply disruption.
At the same time, Iran said it was nearing a deal with Oman over a new route through the Strait of Hormuz, further supporting expectations that regional energy flows could gradually recover. This added to the view that immediate disruption risks may be easing, especially if U.S.–Iran talks continue moving in a constructive direction.
Oil prices also faced pressure from another small production quota increase by major OPEC+ nations. With diplomatic progress reducing supply disruption fears and OPEC+ adding more barrels to the market, traders began pricing in a softer near-term supply outlook.
Overall, crude oil’s near-term bias has turned weaker as markets shift from escalation fears toward deal optimism. If negotiations progress and Hormuz-related shipping risks continue to ease, oil prices may remain under pressure. However, any setback in talks could quickly revive supply concerns and trigger renewed volatility.
Technical Analysis
Crude Oil, H4:
Crude oil prices are trading lower, currently testing the 80.15 support level, which remains a key near-term floor.
Momentum indicators continue to support the downside bias, with the MACD showing increasing bearish momentum and the RSI at 35 staying below the midline, suggesting sellers remain in short-term control.
A confirmed breakdown below 80.15 could open further downside toward the next support level at 78.45.
However, if bearish momentum fails to persist, crude oil may stage a technical rebound and retest the 82.00 resistance level, followed by 84.15 if buying momentum improves.
Resistance Levels: 82.00, 84.15
Support Levels: 80.15, 78.45
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