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Published: 18 June 2026,06:32
Daily Market Analysis New
*Gold came under pressure after the Federal Reserve adopted a more hawkish tone, reinforcing expectations of higher interest rates.
*A stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields have increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
*Markets expect further monetary tightening as policymakers remain focused on bringing inflation back under control.
Gold has experienced heightened volatility as investors balance competing macroeconomic and geopolitical forces. The dominant bearish catalyst has been the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting, where officials left interest rates unchanged but signaled a much more hawkish outlook for the remainder of the year. Updated projections indicated that many policymakers expect additional tightening due to persistent inflation, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stressed the importance of restoring price stability and offered little indication of near-term easing. The resulting surge in the US dollar and Treasury yields significantly increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, triggering a sharp post-meeting selloff that pushed prices below recent highs and pressured key technical support levels.
At the same time, easing geopolitical tensions have reduced some of gold’s traditional safe-haven appeal. The interim agreement between the United States and Iran, aimed at extending the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, has lowered concerns over severe energy supply disruptions and helped drive oil prices lower. Softer oil prices have moderated inflation expectations, reducing one of the factors that previously supported bullion during the Middle East conflict. Nevertheless, uncertainty surrounding the implementation of the agreement including the pace of restoring shipping operations and the possibility of renewed tensions if either side violates the deal has prevented a deeper collapse in gold prices.
Despite these headwinds, gold has demonstrated resilience by rebounding after its initial Fed-driven decline. The recovery has been aided by lower oil prices, short-covering activity, and continued investor demand for portfolio diversification amid an uncertain global outlook. Longer-term structural support also remains intact through ongoing central bank purchases and concerns over geopolitical stability. However, in the near term, the balance of risks still favors caution. As long as the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish policy bias, Treasury yields remain elevated, and the US dollar stays strong, rallies in gold may face resistance. Conversely, any deterioration in geopolitical conditions, signs of weakening US economic momentum, or a shift toward a less aggressive Fed stance could quickly revive safe-haven demand and provide renewed upside for the precious metal.
Technical Analysis
Gold remains in a recovery phase but price is now facing a critical technical test near the 4,375 resistance zone and the descending trendline that has capped rallies since late May.After rebounding strongly from the 4,100 support area, gold successfully reclaimed 4,250 and advanced toward 4,375. However, recent price action shows hesitation around this resistance cluster, with several candles rejecting higher levels. The highlighted consolidation zone between roughly 4,300 and 4,375 suggests a battle between buyers attempting a breakout and sellers defending the broader downtrend structure.
Momentum indicators remain constructive but are beginning to cool. RSI is holding around 52, remaining above the neutral 50 level, which suggests buyers still retain a slight advantage. Meanwhile, MACD remains in positive territory with the MACD line above the signal line, although the histogram has started to contract, indicating bullish momentum is slowing after the recent rally.
Overall, the short-term bias has improved from bearish to neutral-bullish following the rebound from 4,100. However, gold remains below a major trendline resistance, meaning confirmation is still required before a broader bullish reversal can be established. A sustained move above 4,375 would significantly strengthen the bullish outlook, while rejection from current levels could lead to another period of consolidation or retracement.
Resistance Levels: 4375.00, 4520.00
Support Levels: 4250.00, 4100.00
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