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Published: 10 April 2026,06:41
Daily Market Analysis New
*US dollar weakens on soft GDP and rising jobless claims
*Cooling inflation and lower oil prices reduce rate hike expectations
*Federal Reserve policy outlook turns less aggressive
*Gold prices stabilize as geopolitical risks and rate expectations offset
Market Summary:
The US dollar weakened further as a series of softer-than-expected economic data reinforced concerns over slowing growth and reduced expectations for additional monetary tightening. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, remained under pressure as markets reassessed the outlook for interest rates.
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Core PCE price index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — eased slightly to 3.0% from 3.1%, in line with expectations. Despite earlier concerns over supply-driven inflation linked to geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices, inflation trends appear relatively stable, easing pressure on policymakers to act aggressively.
However, US economic data painted a weaker picture overall. GDP growth slowed sharply to 0.5% from a previous 4.4%, missing expectations of 0.7%, signaling a significant loss of economic momentum. At the same time, initial jobless claims rose to 219,000, above forecasts of 210,000, pointing to early signs of softening in the labor market. This combination of weaker growth and stable inflation has led markets to scale back expectations for further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, putting additional pressure on the dollar.
Adding to this trend, the recent decline in oil prices has further eased inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations of a more cautious policy stance. As inflation risks moderate, the likelihood of aggressive tightening diminishes, weakening the near-term outlook for the US dollar.
Meanwhile, gold prices remained stable after recent gains, supported by a balance of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Market participants continue to monitor developments surrounding U.S.–Iran tensions, with Donald Trump expressing optimism over a potential agreement despite ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
While geopolitical tensions continue to pose upside risks to inflation — potentially delaying rate cuts or even prompting tighter policy — the recent stabilization in oil prices has eased immediate concerns. This environment supports gold, as lower interest rate expectations reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Overall, the gold price outlook remains supported by easing monetary tightening expectations and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, while the US dollar outlook remains pressured by weaker economic data and moderating inflation risks. Markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to upcoming economic releases and geopolitical developments for clearer directional signals.
Technical Analysis
The dollar index is currently consolidating within a range between 98.50 support and 99.10 resistance, with markets awaiting a clear breakout for directional cues.
Momentum is stabilizing, as the MACD shows diminishing bearish momentum, while the RSI at 37 is approaching oversold territory, suggesting a potential shift toward a more bullish bias.
A breakout above 99.10 could trigger further upside toward 99.70.
However, failure to sustain momentum may lead to continued consolidation or a retest of 98.50 support, with deeper downside toward 98.00 if pressure builds.
Resistance Levels: 99.10, 99.70
Support Levels: 98.50, 98.00
Gold is consolidating near the 4,785.00 resistance level, showing signs of slowing momentum after recent gains.
The MACD has formed a bearish crossover (death cross), while the RSI at 49 hovers near the midline, indicating fading bullish strength and potential for a short-term pullback.
Prices may retest the 4,700.00 support level in the near term.
However, a confirmed breakout above 4,785.00 would likely revive bullish momentum, opening the path toward 4,840.00.
Resistance Levels: 4785.00, 4840.00
Support Levels: 4700.00, 4610.00
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