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Published: 10 April 2026,06:38
Daily Market Analysis New
*Oil prices rebound after sharp selloff as ceasefire uncertainty rises
*Iran questions legitimacy of ceasefire terms, citing violations
*Strait of Hormuz remains largely constrained, keeping supply risks elevated
*U.S. to begin direct talks with Iran amid ongoing regional tensions
Market Summary:
Oil prices rebounded slightly after plunging more than 15% earlier in the week, as markets reacted to the temporary 14-day ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran. While the ceasefire initially eased concerns over global oil supply disruptions, ongoing tensions between the two countries continue to limit a sustained recovery in crude prices.
Despite the agreement, both the United States and Iran have accused each other of violating ceasefire terms, raising doubts about the durability of the deal. Donald Trump initially expressed optimism about reaching a broader agreement with Iran, but later shifted his tone, criticizing Tehran over oil transit issues in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated that Iran was doing a poor job in ensuring the smooth flow of oil through the critical waterway, which handles a significant portion of global oil shipments.
The situation has been further complicated by Israeli military strikes in Lebanon, which have added pressure to ongoing diplomatic negotiations and increased the risk of broader regional instability. These developments continue to influence oil price volatility, as traders assess the likelihood of further disruptions to global energy supply.
At the same time, diplomatic efforts remain ongoing. U.S. officials indicated that further U.S.–Iran talks are expected, with JD Vance set to lead the American delegation in upcoming discussions with Iranian officials. The outcome of these negotiations will be a key driver for oil price outlook, particularly in determining whether the ceasefire can evolve into a longer-term agreement.
Overall, while the ceasefire has provided short-term relief, oil market sentiment remains fragile. Continued geopolitical tensions, uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz, and the risk of renewed conflict are likely to keep crude oil prices volatile in the near term, with investors closely monitoring developments for clearer direction.
Technical Analysis
CL-Oil, H4
Crude oil prices are trading sideways, consolidating near the 100.45 resistance level, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and acts as a key breakout zone.
Momentum is gradually improving, with the MACD showing diminishing bearish pressure, while the RSI at 44 is forming a bullish crossover, suggesting potential upside if a breakout occurs.
A confirmed move above 100.45 could extend gains toward 108.45, reinforcing bullish continuation.
However, if momentum fails to sustain, prices may pull back toward the 92.65 support level, with further downside toward 87.60 if selling pressure increases.
Resistance Levels: 100.45, 108.45
Support Levels: 92.65, 87.60
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