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Published: 13 April 2026,06:22
Daily Market Analysis New
*U.S.–Iran ceasefire talks collapse, reviving geopolitical risks
*Oil price surge fuels inflation concerns and lifts Treasury yields
*US dollar strengthens on safe-haven demand and higher rate expectations
*Gold prices decline as rising yields reduce non-yielding asset appeal
Market Summary:
The US dollar strengthened broadly while gold prices declined as geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran escalated following the collapse of ceasefire negotiations after 21 hours of discussions. JD Vance confirmed that Tehran rejected Washington’s terms, significantly reducing hopes for near-term de-escalation.
Following the breakdown in talks, Donald Trump signaled a more aggressive stance, including potential actions targeting shipping flows around the Strait of Hormuz — a critical route that handles a large share of global oil supply. This development has intensified fears of supply disruption and driven a sharp increase in oil prices, a key driver of global inflation expectations.
The surge in oil prices has reignited inflation concerns, prompting a selloff in U.S. Treasuries and pushing yields higher. As a result, markets are increasingly pricing in a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment, reinforcing the outlook for tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.
Against this backdrop, the US dollar outlook remains supported, benefiting from both rising yield differentials and its role as a safe-haven currency during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.
Meanwhile, gold prices moved lower, highlighting a key shift in current market dynamics. Despite elevated geopolitical risks, rising yields have increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, outweighing its traditional safe-haven appeal. This suggests that monetary policy expectations are currently the dominant driver for gold price movements, rather than risk sentiment alone.
Technical Analysis
The dollar index is trading higher, currently testing the 99.10 resistance level, a key near-term breakout zone.
Momentum is improving, with the MACD strengthening and the RSI rebounding to 48 from oversold levels, indicating recovering bullish pressure.
A confirmed breakout above 99.10 could extend gains toward 99.70.
However, if bullish momentum fails to sustain, the index may retrace toward the 98.50 support level, with further downside toward 98.00 if selling pressure builds.
Resistance Levels: 99.10, 99.70
Support Levels: 98.50, 98.00
Gold prices are trading lower after a breakdown below the 4,705.00 support level, signaling increasing bearish pressure.
Momentum remains negative, with the MACD expanding to the downside, suggesting potential continuation toward the 4,610.00 support level.
However, the RSI at 31 is entering oversold territory, indicating a possible short-term rebound. With these mixed signals, gold may enter a near-term consolidation phase, with a potential retest of 4,705.00 resistance if momentum stabilizes.
Resistance Levels: 4705.00, 4785.00
Support Levels: 4610.00, 4495.00
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