The Week Ahead: Week of 3 July (GMT+3)

Monday, 3 July, 17:00 – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in the United States has remained below the threshold of 50 for the sixth consecutive month, signalling contraction in the sector. The latest reading recorded a decline to 46.9 from the previous reading of 47.1. A sustained PMI reading below 48.7% typically indicates economic vulnerability.

Tuesday, 4 July, All day – US Independence Day

Markets are closed on July 4th, when the United States celebrates its independence, which will reduce trading activity.

Tuesday, 4 July, 07:30 – AU RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul)

In June, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates to 4.1% to control inflation. In recent months, the central bank has been cautioning that additional rate increases might be required. However, the consumer and core inflation in May had a cooling effect. As a result, investors speculate that further interest rate hikes in July are unnecessary.

Friday, 7 July, 15:30 – US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun)

The latest report on June US Nonfarm Payrolls exceeded market expectations, showing a substantial increase from 294k to 339k. The release of positive payrolls data has bolstered market confidence of a robust jobs market, leading to increased expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve before the end of July.

Friday, 7 July, 15:30 – US Unemployment Rate (Jun)

In May, the US saw a significant increase in jobs, with 339,000 new positions created, surpassing the previous month’s numbers. However, the unemployment rate also increased slightly by 0.3% to 3.7%, which was higher than expected (3.5%). Despite this slight increase, the unemployment rate remained historically low, showing that the job market is still quite competitive.

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