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Published: 10 June 2026,07:29
Daily Market Analysis New
*Crude oil remains supported as escalating US-Iran tensions continue to raise concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies.
*The Strait of Hormuz remains a key focal point for markets, with ongoing shipping disruptions maintaining a geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.
*Reports of a US Apache helicopter being shot down have increased fears of further military escalation despite ongoing ceasefire negotiations.
Crude oil remains one of the most sensitive assets to ongoing geopolitical developments as traders continue to monitor escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. Prices have rebounded after renewed military incidents raised concerns about potential disruptions to global energy supplies, particularly around the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit route for global oil exports.
Market sentiment deteriorated after reports emerged that a US Apache helicopter had been shot down near the Strait of Hormuz, prompting renewed threats of retaliation from President Donald Trump despite the existence of an ongoing ceasefire framework. The incident has increased concerns that negotiations between the US and Iran could deteriorate further, prolonging regional instability and creating additional risks to energy infrastructure and shipping routes.
Although periodic optimism surrounding ceasefire negotiations has occasionally triggered profit-taking and temporary pullbacks in oil prices, traders remain reluctant to fully remove the geopolitical risk premium from the market. The continued disruption of shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with uncertainty surrounding future diplomatic progress, has maintained upward pressure on prices.
Beyond geopolitical concerns, oil is also playing an increasingly important role in shaping broader financial markets. Rising energy prices are contributing to inflation pressures globally, influencing expectations for central bank policy and supporting higher bond yields. This dynamic has strengthened the relationship between oil, inflation expectations, and Federal Reserve policy outlooks. Should tensions escalate further or negotiations break down completely, markets may begin pricing in a more significant supply disruption scenario, which could drive another leg higher in crude prices. Until a durable diplomatic resolution is achieved, geopolitical developments are likely to remain the primary driver of oil market volatility.
Technical Analysis
Crude Oil, H4:
Crude oil remains under pressure after failing to sustain its recent recovery attempts, with price continuing to trade near the key 89.90 support region. Recent price action shows WTI maintaining a sequence of lower highs and lower lows following repeated rejections below the 94.20 resistance level, reinforcing the broader bearish structure despite signs of short-term stabilization.
Momentum indicators continue to reflect underlying downside pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the midpoint level, suggesting that bearish momentum still dominates while buying interest remains limited. Meanwhile, the MACD remains in negative territory, with both signal lines trending below the zero line and the histogram holding on the downside, reflecting persistent bearish momentum following the recent decline.Overall, crude oil appears to remain in a corrective bearish phase after its failure to reclaim higher resistance levels.
Resistance Levels: 89.90, 94.20
Support Levels: 86.50, 81.40
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