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Published: 19 June 2026,07:24
Daily Market Analysis New
*Restart of oil flows through Hormuz provides relief for Gulf economies
*Crude oil stabilises as geopolitical risk premium continues to unwind
*Market focus shifts to how quickly exports and shipping activity can normalise
For Gulf economies, the restart of production and the return of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz provide major relief to export revenues and regional stability. The normalisation of energy flows reduces pressure on key oil-producing economies that had been affected by supply disruptions and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
For global markets, lower energy prices could help ease inflation concerns, giving central banks more room to assess monetary policy without the immediate pressure of an energy-driven inflation shock. A sustained decline in oil prices may reduce cost pressures for businesses and consumers, improving the broader macroeconomic outlook.
The potential decline in fuel prices may also support consumer sentiment, particularly in energy-importing economies. In the United States, lower energy prices could also help rebuild inventories that had fallen to very low levels, improving supply security and reducing pressure on domestic fuel markets.
Crude oil prices began to stabilise as investors priced in a potential return of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The easing of supply disruption fears reduced the geopolitical premium that had previously supported oil prices during the height of the regional tensions.
However, further downside in oil prices may depend on how quickly shipping activity and oil exports normalise. If production and exports recover smoothly, crude oil could remain under pressure as supply concerns continue to fade.
That said, markets remain sensitive to any delay in the reopening process or renewed geopolitical tensions. Any setback could quickly revive supply disruption fears and trigger another round of volatility in oil prices.
Overall, crude oil’s near-term outlook has shifted from escalation-driven upside toward stabilisation and potential downside pressure. The key market focus will be whether energy flows through Hormuz can return to normal without further disruption.
Technical Analysis
Crude Oil, H4:
Crude oil prices are trading lower after a breakdown below the previous 79.20 support level, maintaining a bearish short-term structure.
If bearish momentum persists, prices could extend losses toward the next support at 70.70, with further downside toward 64.55 if selling pressure intensifies.
However, momentum indicators suggest downside pressure may be easing. The MACD is showing improving bullish momentum, while the RSI at 38 has rebounded sharply from oversold territory, suggesting bargain buying may emerge in the near term.
If bearish momentum fades, crude oil may stage a technical rebound and retest the 79.20 resistance level, followed by 87.65 if recovery momentum strengthens.
Resistance Levels: 79.20, 87.65
Support Levels: 70.70, 64.55
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