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Oil Extends Rally as U.S. Ultimatum to Iran Raises Escalation Risks

Published: 6 April 2026,03:02

Daily Market Analysis New

Key Takeaways:

*Oil prices continue to surge amid escalating U.S.–Iran tensions

*Trump issues fresh ultimatum tied to Strait of Hormuz reopening

*Conflicting deadlines increase uncertainty over policy direction

*Markets await further signals from upcoming U.S. announcements

Market Summary:

Crude oil prices extended their rally as tensions between the United States and Iran continued to escalate, heightening concerns over global energy supply disruptions.

Donald Trump issued a fresh ultimatum to Tehran, threatening to strike power plants and other critical infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. The warning has intensified fears of further escalation, particularly as the strait remains a key artery for global oil shipments.

Trump indicated that he would hold a news conference at 1PM on Monday and referenced a Tuesday 8PM Eastern Time deadline for Iran to reopen the strait, although no further details were provided. The timeline adds to existing uncertainty, following an earlier 10-day deadline that was set to expire on Monday evening.

The shifting deadlines and lack of clarity around U.S. intentions have increased market volatility, with participants struggling to assess the likelihood of diplomatic resolution versus further escalation.

Should ceasefire efforts fail, the risk of broader conflict remains elevated, with potential implications for global energy flows and inflation. As a result, markets are expected to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines.

Investors will closely monitor Trump’s upcoming remarks for clearer direction, with any signals on military action or diplomatic progress likely to drive near-term price movements in oil and related assets.

Technical Analysis

CL-Oil, H4

Crude oil prices remain elevated, currently testing the 113.55 resistance level, with market focus on a potential breakout above recent highs.

However, momentum indicators are showing early signs of fatigue. The MACD is turning lower, while the RSI at 62 is easing from overbought territory, suggesting a potential near-term technical correction.

If bullish momentum weakens, prices may retrace toward the 106.65 support level, which remains key to holding the broader uptrend.

Conversely, a confirmed breakout above 113.55 would likely extend gains toward 119.35, reinforcing bullish continuation.

Resistance Levels: 113.55, 119.35

Support Levels: 106.65, 101.55

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Oil Extends Rally as U.S. Ultimatum to Iran Raises Escalation Risks

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CL-Oil, H4

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