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Published: 27 July 2026,05:52
Daily Market Analysis New
*US dollar weakens as easing Middle East tensions reduce oil-driven inflation concerns
*Lower energy prices pressure Treasury yields and reduce short-term dollar demand
*Markets remain focused on the Fed decision, US GDP, Core PCE data, and U.S.–Iran risks
The Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, moved lower as easing Middle East tensions reduced concerns over oil-driven inflation. With fighting temporarily paused, crude oil prices retreated, helping calm fears that higher energy costs could force the Federal Reserve to maintain a more aggressive tightening stance.
The decline in energy prices also pressured US Treasury yields, weakening short-term demand for the dollar. Lower yields reduce the appeal of dollar-denominated assets, especially as investors reassess the likelihood of further Fed tightening if inflation pressures continue to ease.
This softer dollar and lower-yield environment provided support for gold. The precious metal rebounded as the pause in fighting reduced oil-supply risks and eased expectations of further monetary tightening. During early Asian trading on Monday, gold prices rose as much as 1.6%, supported by renewed demand for non-yielding bullion.
However, gold may remain sensitive to upcoming US economic data and the Federal Reserve’s assessment of inflation and interest rates. The Fed will announce its interest-rate decision on Wednesday, 29 July, US time, followed by second-quarter GDP and June Core PCE inflation data on Thursday, 30 July.
These events could provide important direction for the dollar, gold, equities, and Treasury yields. A more hawkish Fed tone or stronger inflation data could support the dollar and pressure gold lower again, while softer guidance may help extend gold’s recovery.
At the same time, geopolitical risks remain unresolved. The United States and Iran have not yet signed a formal ceasefire deal, with both sides only pausing attacks for now. This means the risk of renewed conflict still exists, and any fresh escalation could trigger another round of market volatility.
Overall, gold is benefiting from easing oil risks, lower yields, and a softer dollar in the short term. However, the next major move will likely depend on the Fed’s policy tone, upcoming US inflation data, and whether the U.S.–Iran pause can develop into a more durable ceasefire agreement.
Technical Analysis
Gold prices are trading lower, currently testing the 4,040.00 support level, which acts as a key near-term downside pivot.
Market attention remains focused on a potential breakdown below this zone. A confirmed break below 4,040.00 could extend losses toward the next support level at 3,960.00, reinforcing the bearish structure.
However, momentum indicators suggest that selling pressure may be easing. The MACD is showing diminishing bearish momentum, while the RSI at 35 has entered oversold territory, indicating the possibility of a short-term technical rebound.
If bearish momentum fails to persist, gold may recover and consolidate back toward the 4,125.00 resistance level, followed by 4,215.00 if recovery momentum strengthens.
Resistance Levels: 4125.00, 4215.00
Support Levels: 4040.00, 3960.00
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