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Published: 4 June 2026,06:09
Daily Market Analysis New
*US dollar remains supported by strong labor data and rising Treasury yields
*Higher oil prices continue to fuel inflation concerns
*Fed officials maintain focus on returning inflation to the 2% target
The U.S. Dollar Index continued to strengthen and remained near key resistance levels, supported by a combination of rising oil prices, higher Treasury yields, and resilient U.S. economic data. Market participants continued to price in the possibility that inflation could remain elevated for longer, especially as higher energy prices increase pressure on broader price levels.
According to the latest ADP employment report, U.S. private payrolls increased by 122,000 in May, rising from 105,000 previously and exceeding market expectations of 110,000. The stronger-than-expected reading reinforced confidence in the resilience of the U.S. labor market and supported the view that the economy remains strong enough to withstand a higher interest rate environment.
Additional support for the dollar came from comments by Beth Hammack, who reiterated the Federal Reserve’s commitment to bringing inflation back toward its 2% target. Her remarks suggested that policymakers may need to remain cautious and potentially act further if inflation pressures prove persistent. As a result, markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility of additional policy tightening later this year, helping Treasury yields stay elevated and providing further support for the greenback.
Gold prices, on the other hand, moved lower as the stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields continued to weigh on the precious metal. Although ongoing geopolitical tensions would normally support safe-haven demand, the market’s main focus remains on inflation risks and the possibility of higher interest rates.
Elevated borrowing costs increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, limiting upside momentum despite persistent global uncertainty. As long as Treasury yields remain firm and the dollar continues to benefit from strong data and hawkish policy expectations, gold may remain under pressure in the near term.
Technical Analysis
DXY, H4:
The dollar index is trading higher, currently testing the 99.50 resistance level, a key near-term breakout zone.
A confirmed breakout above 99.50 could extend gains toward the next resistance at 100.10, reinforcing the bullish structure.
However, momentum indicators are showing signs of exhaustion. The MACD is losing bullish strength, while the RSI at 63 is pulling back from overbought territory, suggesting a potential near-term technical correction.
If bullish momentum fades, the index may retest the 98.90 support level, with further downside toward 98.40 if selling pressure intensifies.
Resistance Levels: 99.50, 100.10
Support Levels: 98.90, 98.40
Gold, H4:
Gold prices are trading lower, currently testing the 4,455.00 support level, which serves as a key near-term floor.
A confirmed breakdown below 4,455.00 could extend losses toward the next support at 4,370.00.
However, momentum indicators suggest downside pressure may be easing. The MACD is showing diminishing bearish momentum, while the RSI at 47 is rebounding from lower levels and forming a bullish crossover, indicating potential for a short-term technical rebound.
If bearish momentum fades, gold may retest the 4,575.00 resistance level, followed by 4,665.00 if recovery strengthens.
Resistance Levels: 4575.00, 4665.00
Support Levels: 4455.00, 4370.00
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