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Market Insights > Daily Market Analysis New

Oil Prices Stay Volatile as U.S.–China Talks Raise Hopes for Geopolitical Progress

Published: 15 May 2026,07:17

Daily Market Analysis New

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oil
US-China

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Key Takeaways

*Oil prices initially rise on Trump’s comments about China buying U.S. oil

*Strait of Hormuz tensions continue supporting geopolitical premium

*OPEC cuts 2026 oil demand growth forecast

Market Summary

Crude oil prices remained volatile after initially gaining more than 1%, following comments from Donald Trump that China is interested in purchasing more oil from the United States. At the same time, concerns over continued ship attacks and vessel seizures near the Strait of Hormuz kept geopolitical risks elevated, despite Iran stating that around 30 vessels had recently passed through the waterway.

However, oil prices later stabilized and edged slightly lower as market participants turned their attention toward ongoing U.S.–China discussions, with sentiment remaining cautiously optimistic. Investors are increasingly viewing the talks as an important diplomatic channel that could help reduce broader geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict.

China remains the largest buyer of Iranian crude oil despite ongoing sanctions and pressure from the United States, making Beijing’s role increasingly important in any future resolution involving Iran. Trump is expected to continue discussions with Chinese leadership through Thursday and Friday, with talks covering a wide range of topics including Taiwan, future U.S.–China trade relations, the Middle East conflict, energy cooperation, and broader geopolitical stability.

Although no major breakthroughs have emerged so far, the overall tone of the discussions has remained relatively constructive. Both sides reportedly discussed expanding market access for U.S. businesses, increasing Chinese purchases of American energy and agricultural products, and cooperation on issues such as fentanyl precursor controls.

Meanwhile, OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, adding another factor limiting upside momentum for crude prices.

Markets are now closely watching whether U.S.–China discussions could indirectly support future negotiations between the United States and Iran. Investors believe that any diplomatic progress involving Iran could eventually help reopen the Strait of Hormuz more fully, stabilize shipping activity, and normalize global energy flows.

Overall, oil prices remain supported by geopolitical risks and supply disruption concerns, while optimism surrounding diplomacy and softer long-term demand expectations continue to cap aggressive upside momentum.

Technical Analysis

image – PU Prime | More Than Trading — image

Crude Oil, H4:

Crude oil prices are trading lower after a retracement from the 101.60 resistance level, indicating increasing downside pressure in the near term.

Momentum indicators remain bearish, with the MACD strengthening to the downside and the RSI at 43 below the midline, suggesting weakness may persist.

If bearish momentum continues, prices could extend losses toward the 94.05 support level, with further downside toward 85.90 if selling pressure intensifies.

However, if selling momentum begins to stabilize, crude oil may rebound and retest the 101.60 resistance level, followed by 107.70 if bullish momentum recovers.

Resistance Levels: 101.60, 107.70
Support Levels: 94.05, 85.90

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