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Published: 18 June 2026,06:46
Daily Market Analysis New
*Crude oil prices continue to fall as markets price in easing U.S.–Iran tensions
*Fed projections show several officials expect at least one rate hike by end-2026
*SpaceX and broader technology shares decline as higher-rate concerns pressure growth stocks
Crude oil prices extended their losses as market participants continued to digest the potential U.S.–Iran ceasefire agreement, which could end the Iran war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and ease U.S. sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports. The agreement, if finalized, could resolve one of the largest energy supply disruptions in recent years and significantly improve the global supply outlook.
Investors are now closely monitoring developments between Washington and Tehran, with the deal expected to be formally signed on Friday. A successful implementation would likely allow energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz to normalize, reducing the geopolitical risk premium that had previously supported crude prices.
The possibility of sanctions relief on Iranian oil has also increased expectations of additional supply returning to the global market. If Iranian exports recover while Middle East shipping routes reopen, the market could shift from supply shortage concerns toward potential oversupply risks.
According to the IEA’s latest monthly market report, if the agreement is successfully implemented and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, this year’s supply crisis could turn into a significant supply glut in 2027. The agency cautioned that global oil supply could outpace demand by 5.05 million barrels per day next year as Middle East oil returns to the market.
At the same time, hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve and rising U.S. Treasury yields have also weighed on broader risk sentiment. The latest Fed projections showed that nine out of 19 policymakers now expect a rate hike may be needed, a clear shift from three months ago when none of them held that view.
Tighter monetary policy expectations could further pressure crude oil prices by weakening the global demand outlook. Higher interest rates may slow economic activity, reduce business investment, and soften energy consumption expectations.
Overall, crude oil’s near-term bias remains under pressure as geopolitical risks ease, supply expectations improve, and hawkish Fed signals weigh on demand sentiment. Traders will continue to monitor whether the U.S.–Iran agreement is formally signed and whether actual oil flows begin normalizing in the coming weeks.
Technical Analysis
Crude Oil, H4:
Crude oil prices are trading lower after a breakdown below the previous 79.20 support level, confirming a bearish short-term structure.
However, momentum indicators suggest selling pressure may be easing. The MACD is showing improving bullish momentum and forming a bullish crossover, while the RSI at 24 remains in oversold territory, indicating the possibility of a short-term technical rebound.
If bearish momentum continues to fade, crude oil may retest the 79.20 level as resistance, with further upside possible if recovery strengthens.
However, if selling pressure persists, prices could extend losses toward the next support at 70.70.
Resistance Levels: 79.20, 86.65
Support Levels: 70.70, 67.95
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