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Published: 19 August 2026,09:06
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*The Australian dollar remains near multi-week highs above 0.7100, supported by a softer U.S. dollar and the RBA’s cautious stance on persistent inflation risks.
*Thursday’s Australian labour report is the key catalyst. Strong employment and a stable or lower unemployment rate could reinforce RBA tightening expectations and support further AUD gains.
*A weaker jobs report, particularly a rise in unemployment, could strengthen expectations for a prolonged RBA pause and pressure the Aussie.
The Australian dollar has exhibited relative strength in recent sessions, trading near multi-week highs against the U.S. dollar and holding above the key 0.7100 level. This performance has been supported by a combination of a softer U.S. dollar—driven by moderating expectations for Federal Reserve tightening—and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to hold the cash rate at 4.35% while retaining a vigilant stance on inflation. The RBA’s recent commentary has emphasised that labour market conditions remain somewhat tight and that upside risks to inflation persist, providing a constructive backdrop for the currency.
Looking ahead to the rest of the week, attention will centre on Thursday’s Australian labour force data, which is expected to play a pivotal role in shaping both RBA policy expectations and market perceptions of the Aussie’s strength. Consensus forecasts point to a more moderate employment increase following the strong June reading, with the unemployment rate anticipated to remain steady near 4.4%. A firmer-than-expected outcome, particularly if it shows resilient job creation or stable-to-lower unemployment, would reinforce the view that the labour market retains sufficient tightness to keep the RBA on hold or even open the door to further tightening later in the year. Such a result would likely support the Australian dollar and sustain its recent outperformance.
Conversely, a softer jobs report—especially a rise in the unemployment rate—could heighten expectations that the RBA will maintain a prolonged pause, potentially weighing on the currency as markets reassess the relative yield advantage. Beyond the data release, broader factors including commodity price trends, Chinese economic indicators, and movements in the U.S. dollar will continue to influence the Aussie’s trajectory. Overall, the near-term outlook remains data-dependent, with Thursday’s labour market figures set to determine whether the recent strength can be extended or faces a period of consolidation.
Technical Analysis
The AUD/JPY pair is showing early signs of a potential trend reversal after reaching its weekly peak near 113.60. Following the rejection at the recent high, the pair has gradually eased and is now hovering around its previous low near 112.75, placing the market at a critical short-term technical juncture.
A decisive break below 112.75 would strengthen the bearish signal and suggest that the pair may be entering a broader technical correction following its recent bullish run. Such a breakdown could trigger additional selling pressure as traders reassess the pair’s short-term momentum.
Should the bearish momentum accelerate, AUD/JPY could extend its decline toward the next key downside target near 111.25, where a significant liquidity zone is located. This area could potentially attract buying interest and provide support for a technical rebound.
Resistance Levels:113.45, 114.70
Support Levels: 112.15, 111.25
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