24/7 SUPPORT
Download App
Search
Popular Search
Published: 11 September 2026,07:36
Daily Market Analysis New
*Oil remains firmly bullish, with Brent above $108 and WTI above $103 as Middle East supply risks intensify.
*Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb disruptions are the biggest upside risks, with attacks on shipping threatening two critical global oil routes.
*Saudi supply is under pressure, while OPEC output fell by 640,000 bpd in August, tightening the physical market.
Oil prices remain strongly supported by a worsening physical-supply risk across the Middle East, with Brent trading around $108–110 a barrel and WTI above $103 after both benchmarks surged more than 6% on Thursday. The immediate catalyst is the growing threat to multiple shipping corridors rather than a single supply disruption. Iran-related attacks have restricted crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran-aligned Houthi forces captured Yemen’s strategic Mocha port and advanced toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, creating a second major threat to energy transportation through the Red Sea. Reuters reported that OPEC production fell by 640,000 barrels per day in August to 19.71 million bpd, with Saudi exports disrupted by the conflict and Iranian shipments constrained.
The supply outlook is becoming more concerning because the disruption is increasingly being treated as a prolonged risk rather than a temporary shock. Attacks on shipping near Hormuz, threats to Saudi energy infrastructure and the Houthi advance toward Bab el-Mandeb raise the possibility that more crude will have to be rerouted or remain off the market. Saudi Arabia has already been using its Red Sea infrastructure to move oil around Hormuz, meaning further Houthi control of the Red Sea corridor could create another bottleneck for Saudi exports. At the same time, Asian buying particularly from China, the world’s largest crude importer has become an important upside factor: continued Chinese purchases could amplify the effect of disrupted supply and keep the physical market tight. The broader energy shock is also visible in refined products, with U.S. diesel prices reaching record levels, increasing the risk that elevated crude prices will feed into transportation and consumer inflation.
However, the fundamental picture is not entirely one-sided. OPEC has lowered its 2026 global oil-demand growth forecast for a fifth consecutive time, reflecting concerns about the economic impact of geopolitical tensions, inflation and trade restrictions. U.S. supply is also providing some cushion: EIA data showed U.S. crude production reaching a record 13.9 million bpd, while crude inventories fell only 391,000 barrels to 424.1 million barrels, considerably less than the roughly 1.4–1.6 million-barrel draw expected by markets. Gasoline inventories also increased by 1.3 million barrels and distillate stocks rose by 2.1 million barrels. This suggests that strong U.S. production and softer fuel demand can partially offset the geopolitical supply shock, although they have so far been insufficient to neutralize the much larger risks surrounding Middle Eastern exports.
The macro spillover from higher oil prices is now becoming increasingly important for oil’s broader market impact. Higher energy costs are feeding directly into inflation expectations, with U.S. PPI rising 0.4% month-on-month and 5.4% year-on-year, while diesel prices were a major contributor to the increase. Markets subsequently increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike, pushing Treasury yields toward multi-year highs. This creates a feedback loop in which oil → inflation → higher bond yields → tighter central-bank expectations, increasing pressure on equities and other rate-sensitive assets. U.S. stocks fell for a fourth consecutive session on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down around 0.6% and the Dow down 316 points, while the dollar benefited from higher yields. For oil itself, the key fundamental drivers going forward are whether Hormuz flows deteriorate further, whether the Houthis expand disruption around Bab el-Mandeb, how quickly Saudi and other producers can restore lost exports, and whether sustained high prices begin to weaken global demand.
Crude oil is trading strongly higher extending its bullish momentum after breaking above the 92.85 resistance level and pushing toward the 104.75 resistance zone. The price is now around 103.15, approaching 104.75, while the broader structure remains bullish with a series of higher highs and higher lows from the July low near 68.05. A sustained breakout above 104.75 could open the way toward the next major resistance at 114.15. On the downside, 92.85 has become the key support level, while a deeper pullback could expose 80.35.
Momentum remains firmly bullish, although the move is becoming stretched. RSI is at 75, above the 70 overbought threshold, signalling strong buying pressure but also increasing the risk of a short-term correction or consolidation. MACD remains bullish, with the MACD line above the signal line while the positive histogram indicates strengthening upside momentum. Overall, the outlook remains bullish while oil holds above 92.85, with a potential breakout above 104.75 favouring further upside toward 114.15. However, given the overbought RSI, a pullback or consolidation around the 104.75 resistance should not be ruled out.
Resistance level: 104.75, 114.15
Support level: 92.85, 80.35
Trade forex, indices, metal, and more at industry-low spreads and lightning-fast execution.
Sign up for a PU Prime Live Account with our hassle-free process.
Effortlessly fund your account with a wide range of channels and accepted currencies.
Access hundreds of instruments under market-leading trading conditions.
Trading Platforms
Learn
About PU Prime
Corporate
Important Notice to Visitors
Our products and services are not offered or made available to residents of your jurisdiction. The information on this Website is not directed at persons in your jurisdiction and is not intended as an offer, solicitation, or promotion of our products or services to them.
By clicking “I Understand”, you acknowledge this notice and confirm that you are accessing this Website at your own initiative. Access to this Website does not mean that our products or services are available to you.
Important Notice
Please be advised that our products and services are currently unavailable to residents and entities located in the Philippines.
This restriction is a result of our firm commitment to adhering to applicable legal and regulatory requirements in all jurisdictions where we operate. In line with our internal compliance protocols and evolving global standards, we continuously assess and update access to our platform to ensure full regulatory alignment.
We appreciate your understanding and cooperation.
If you believe this restriction has been applied in error, please contact our support team for further assistance.
Dear Valued Client,
As part of PU Prime’s ongoing commitment to providing a stable and reliable trading environment, please be informed of the following weekly weekend scheduled optimisation activities:
We sincerely apologise for any inconvenience this may cause as we strive to provide you with better service. PU Prime is committed to providing you with the best trading experience and this Weekly Scheduled Optimisation Notice will enable us to ensure that you trade without any unexpected interruptions.
For other upgrades that may involve longer disruptions to your trading, we will announce them ahead of time in a separate announcement.
Important Notice:
Important Notice: Please note the Website is intended for individuals residing in jurisdictions where accessing the Website is permitted by law.
Please note that PU Prime and its affiliated entities are neither established nor operating in your home jurisdiction.
By clicking the "Acknowledge" button, you confirm that you are entering this website solely on your own initiative and not as a result of any specific marketing outreach. You wish to obtain information from this website which is provided on a reverse solicitation basis in accordance with the laws of your home jurisdiction.
Important Notice:
Please note the Website is intended for individuals residing in jurisdictions where accessing the Website is permitted by law.
Please note that PU Prime and its affiliated entities are neither established nor operating in your home jurisdiction.
By clicking the "Acknowledge" button, you confirm that you are entering this website solely based on your initiative and not as a result of any specific marketing outreach. You wish to obtain information from this website which is provided on reverse solicitation in accordance with the laws of your home jurisdiction.
Aviso importante:
Ten en cuenta que el sitio web está destinado a personas que residen en jurisdicciones donde el acceso al sitio web está permitido por la ley.
Ten en cuenta que PU Prime y sus entidades afiliadas no están establecidas ni operan en tu jurisdicción de origen.
Al hacer clic en el botón "Aceptar", confirmas que estás ingresando a este sitio web por tu propia iniciativa y no como resultado de ningún esfuerzo de marketing específico. Deseas obtener información de este sitio web que se proporciona mediante solicitud inversa de acuerdo con las leyes de tu jurisdicción de origen.
