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Published: 21 August 2026,03:42
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*US Treasury buybacks remain a major market driver after planned long-dated purchases were doubled
*Lower long-term yields have reduced support for the US dollar
*Gold remains strongly supported by lower yields, dollar weakness, and demand for alternative stores of value
US Treasuries remained in focus after the Treasury Department unexpectedly increased the size of its long-dated bond buyback operations from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The move has become a major catalyst for markets, as investors assess whether the programme could provide further support to long-duration bonds.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later said the buyback programme could be expanded further if necessary. The initial announcement pushed the 30-year Treasury yield sharply lower from its recent multi-decade highs, although yields later rebounded as concerns over inflation, fiscal deficits, and overall US government debt remained unresolved.
The move also weighed on the US dollar. As long-term yields declined, the relative appeal of dollar-denominated fixed-income assets weakened, reducing demand for the greenback. This pressured the Dollar Index and added to broader concerns over the sustainability of US fiscal policy.
Importantly, Treasury buybacks are not the same as Federal Reserve quantitative easing or direct money printing. However, by supporting bond-market liquidity and attempting to contain long-term borrowing costs, the programme can still create easier financial conditions. At the same time, concerns over the US fiscal deficit and government debt above $40 trillion continue to weigh on investor confidence toward the dollar.
Gold remained strongly supported after surging more than 4% following the Treasury announcement and holding above $4,500 per ounce. Lower Treasury yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while dollar weakness makes gold more attractive to foreign buyers.
Beyond the yield and currency impact, gold is also benefiting from renewed concerns over US fiscal sustainability. As investors grow more cautious about government debt levels and long-term dollar confidence, gold’s role as an alternative store of value has become more attractive.
Overall, the Treasury buyback programme has created a supportive backdrop for gold by pressuring long-term yields and weakening the dollar. However, markets will continue to monitor whether fiscal concerns, inflation risks, and bond-market volatility limit the effectiveness of further Treasury support.
Technical Analysis
GOLD, H4:
Gold prices are trading higher, currently testing the 4,545.00 resistance level, which acts as a key near-term breakout zone.
Market attention remains focused on a potential breakout above this level. A confirmed move above 4,545.00 could open the path toward the next resistance level at 4,700.00, reinforcing the bullish structure.
However, momentum indicators suggest caution. The MACD is showing diminishing bullish momentum, while the RSI at 64 is forming bearish divergence, indicating that upside momentum may be weakening and that gold could face a short-term technical correction.
If bullish momentum fails to sustain, gold may retrace and retest the 4,435.00 support level, followed by 4,325.00 if selling pressure increases.
Resistance Levels: 4545.00, 4700.00
Support Levels: 4435.00, 4325.00
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