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Published: 18 August 2026,03:37
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*WTI crude rose more than 2.5%, breaking above $84 per barrel as renewed supply concerns lifted the geopolitical risk premium.
*Stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations, restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and reported tanker attacks continue to raise fears of prolonged supply disruptions.
*Further escalation or continued shipping restrictions could push oil higher, while meaningful diplomatic progress and restored tanker traffic would likely trigger a sharp pullback.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil advanced more than 2.5% in the previous session, climbing above the $84 per barrel mark. The move extended a recent recovery and reflected renewed focus on supply risks stemming from the protracted Middle East conflict. Prices have remained sensitive to developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, the critical waterway that normally handles a substantial share of global oil shipments.
The primary factors supporting the rebound centre on the continued stalemate in U.S.-Iran negotiations and restricted shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz. Recent reports of tanker attacks, slower vessel transits over the weekend, and statements indicating that talks have reached an impasse have reinforced the geopolitical risk premium in the market. Iranian conditions for reopening the waterway and the potential for an extended U.S. naval posture have added to uncertainty over near-term supply flows from the region. Additional concerns, including tensions elsewhere in the Middle East and disruptions affecting other producers, have further underpinned prices.
Looking ahead, the near-term outlook for crude remains tightly linked to the trajectory of the Middle East situation. Sustained restrictions on Hormuz traffic or any escalation could support further upside and keep prices elevated, particularly if inventories continue to tighten. Conversely, any tangible progress toward a diplomatic resolution or a meaningful restoration of shipping flows would likely prompt a swift reduction in the risk premium and downward pressure on prices. In the absence of a clear breakthrough, oil is expected to trade with heightened volatility, oscillating around current levels as markets balance ongoing supply risks against the possibility of eventual de-escalation.
Technical Analysis
Crude oil has been trading in a higher-high and higher-low price pattern after consolidating near its weekly low around $75.00, signaling a gradual improvement in its technical structure and a strengthening bullish bias.
The bullish momentum gained further traction after crude broke above its short-term downtrend channel, providing a solid technical signal that the previous bearish pressure may be easing. Following the breakout, crude has successfully found support near $85.00, suggesting that buyers remain active and are continuing to defend higher price levels.
Despite the improving bullish structure, crude is now approaching a major technical hurdle. The long-term downtrend trendline near $89.00 is expected to act as strong resistance and could trigger profit-taking or a technical retracement if the price fails to break through.
A decisive breakout above $89.00 would be a significant technical development, as it would signal that crude has overcome its longer-term bearish structure and could potentially pave the way for a more sustained bullish recovery.
Resistance Levels: 92.35, 99.15
Support Levels: 77.60, 69.75
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