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Published: 18 August 2026,03:11
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*The US Dollar Index remains near multi-month lows as weaker NFP, inflation and retail-sales data reduce expectations of further Fed tightening.
*Markets currently price only around a 35% probability of a September Fed rate hike.
*The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.32%, its highest level since 2007, reflecting concerns over fiscal sustainability and long-term inflation.
*Gold remains supported by a weaker dollar and strong central-bank demand, although rising yields are creating short-term headwinds.
*China added around 640,000 ounces, or nearly 20 tonnes, of gold in July, extending its buying streak to 21 consecutive months.
The US Dollar Index remained near multi-month lows as a series of weaker US economic reports continued to reduce expectations that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy again in the near term. Softer employment, inflation and retail-sales data have encouraged traders to scale back rate-hike expectations, with markets currently assigning only around a 35% probability of a September increase, compared with more than 50% a week earlier.
However, the dollar’s downside has remained relatively contained because of a sharp increase in long-term US Treasury yields. The 30-year yield climbed above 5.32%, reaching its highest level since 2007, as investors became increasingly concerned about the US fiscal outlook, heavy debt issuance and persistent long-term inflation risks.
This divergence between falling near-term rate expectations and rising long-term yields has created a more complicated outlook for the dollar. Softer economic data remain a bearish factor, while elevated long-term yields could provide some support if concerns over inflation and US debt continue to intensify.
Gold, meanwhile, remains broadly supported by the weaker dollar and continued official-sector buying. The People’s Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 640,000 ounces in July, equivalent to nearly 20 metric tonnes, extending its accumulation streak to 21 consecutive months.
However, gold has faced some short-term pressure as rising Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Spot gold slipped toward $4,390 on August 18 after recently trading above $4,420, highlighting the tension between supportive dollar and central-bank fundamentals and the headwind from higher long-term yields.
Moving forward, investors will closely monitor the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, Treasury yields and incoming US economic data for clearer guidance on whether the dollar can recover and whether gold can sustain its broader bullish trend.
Technical Analysis
GOLD, H4:
Gold prices retreated after once again testing the crucial 4,440.00 resistance level, increasing the possibility of a short-term double-top formation. In addition, a bearish engulfing candlestick emerged near the resistance zone, suggesting that selling pressure is beginning to build.
Momentum indicators have also turned weaker. The MACD is showing increasing bearish momentum with a bearish crossover, while the RSI has fallen toward 50, indicating fading bullish strength.
If selling momentum persists, gold could extend its correction toward the first support level around 4,370.00. However, if bearish pressure fails to sustain, prices may rebound and retest the 4,440.00 resistance level.
Resistance Levels: 4,440.00, 4450.00
Support Levels: 4,315.00, 4,200.00
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