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Published: 13 August 2026,07:29
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*US CPI eased to 3.4% from 3.5%, broadly matching expectations.
*The lack of an inflation surprise leaves the US dollar without a clear directional catalyst.
*Markets reduced the probability of a September Fed rate hike to around 40% after the CPI release.
The US Dollar Index remained relatively flat after July inflation data failed to provide a strong catalyst. Headline CPI eased to 3.4% year-on-year from 3.5%, while monthly inflation rose just 0.1%, broadly in line with market expectations.
With inflation showing no major upside surprise and the recent NFP report pointing to weaker labour-market conditions, traders continued to scale back expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike. Market pricing now suggests roughly a 40% probability of a hike, down from around 54% before the CPI release. Treasury yields also eased, limiting stronger demand for the dollar.
Gold, meanwhile, remained near its highest level in more than two months. The softer dollar, declining yields and reduced expectations of near-term Fed tightening have continued to support non-yielding bullion.
However, with CPI largely matching expectations, traders are now looking toward the July PPI report for the next potential catalyst. A softer PPI reading could further reduce rate-hike expectations and support gold, while an upside surprise could lift Treasury yields and the dollar, potentially triggering a correction in bullion.
Technical Analysis
GOLD, H4:
Gold prices are trading lower after breaking below the upward trendline, with price action currently hovering near the 4,365.00 support level.
Momentum remains bearish, with the MACD showing increasing downside momentum and the RSI at 40 staying below the midline, suggesting that selling pressure may persist in the near term.
If bearish momentum continues, gold could extend losses toward the next support level at 4,285.00, followed by deeper downside if selling pressure accelerates.
However, if bearish momentum begins to fade, gold may stage a technical rebound and retest the 4,485.00 resistance level, followed by 4,645.00 if recovery momentum strengthens.
Resistance Levels: 4485.00, 4645.00
Support Levels: 4365.00, 4285.00
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