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Published: 12 August 2026,09:54
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*Oil remains bullish as Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Middle East tensions keep supply risks elevated.
*Brent approaches $90 and WTI tops $83, reflecting a persistent geopolitical risk premium.
*The sharp US crude inventory build could cap WTI’s upside if confirmed by EIA data.
Crude oil remains one of the strongest fundamental themes in the market, with Brent around $89–90 per barrel and WTI above $83. Prices have extended a multi-session rally as optimism over a quick US-Iran agreement has faded and concerns over the Strait of Hormuz have intensified. Iran’s senior security officials have reiterated that the waterway will remain closed unless Washington accepts Tehran’s conditions, while shipping traffic has fallen sharply. Recent data showed only six vessels passing through the Strait on Monday, compared with a pre-war average of roughly 125–140 vessels per day, highlighting the scale of the disruption.
The geopolitical risk has also broadened beyond Hormuz. Iran-aligned Houthi forces have attacked shipping around the Bab el-Mandeb, while additional incidents involving commercial vessels have increased concerns about the security of regional supply routes. At the same time, Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and renewed disruptions in Libya are adding further supply-side risks. The EIA has warned that Middle Eastern crude supply disruptions of around 600,000 barrels per day could persist through the end of 2027, suggesting that the market may continue to carry a structural geopolitical risk premium even if diplomatic efforts eventually make progress.
However, there is an important bearish factor emerging from the US supply side. API data reportedly showed US crude inventories rising by around 9.1 million barrels for the week ended August 7, significantly above expectations for a modest draw. Gasoline inventories fell by about 1.5 million barrels, while distillates declined by roughly 596,000 barrels. If the large crude build is confirmed by the EIA, it could temporarily ease concerns over tight US supply and limit the upside in WTI.
Overall, the oil fundamental picture remains bullish but highly headline-sensitive. The geopolitical supply risk currently outweighs the bearish US inventory signal, particularly while Hormuz traffic remains severely restricted and negotiations remain unresolved. Brent’s move toward $90 reflects the market pricing a persistent supply-risk premium, while any credible breakthrough between Washington and Tehran could trigger a sharp reversal. Until there is evidence of a sustained reopening of Hormuz, the upside risk to crude remains elevated.
Technical Analysis
Crude Oil, H4:
Crude Oil has strengthened considerably after rebounding from the 74.95 support zone and breaking above the 80.80 resistance level. Price has now climbed to around 83.80 after decisively breaking above the descending trendline that had capped the recovery from the 93.45 peak. The breakout has improved the short-term market structure, with 80.80 now acting as an important support level. However, price is approaching the 86.95 resistance area, which represents the next major upside barrier. A sustained break above 86.95 would strengthen the bullish outlook and potentially expose the 93.45 resistance level.
Momentum indicators are also turning increasingly bullish. RSI has risen to around 63 and remains above its moving average, indicating that buying pressure is strengthening while the indicator remains below overbought territory. Meanwhile, MACD has crossed firmly above the signal line, with the histogram remaining positive and expanding, suggesting that bullish momentum is gaining traction. The improving momentum structure supports the recent breakout, although some consolidation may occur as price approaches the 86.95 resistance zone. Overall, Crude Oil has shifted into a more constructive short-term structure following the breakout above both the 80.80 resistance level and the descending trendline.
Resistance Levels: 86.95, 93.45
Support Levels: 80.80, 74.95
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