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Published: 6 July 2026,08:53
Daily Market Analysis New
*Crude oil prices remain under pressure as supply risks continue to ease
*OPEC+ agrees to raise output targets further from August
*Gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz supports the recovery of oil flows
*Rising supply expectations keep the near-term oil outlook bearish
Crude oil prices extended losses after OPEC+ agreed to raise output targets further from August, adding more supply to the market at a time when prices are already under pressure from the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The group agreed during an online meeting to increase production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day from August, following similar increases in June and July. This continued output adjustment has reinforced expectations that more supply will return to the market in the coming months.
The seven core members of OPEC+, including key OPEC producers and allies such as Russia, have already lifted output quotas by nearly 800,000 barrels per day from April through July. The latest decision signals that the group remains willing to gradually restore production despite weaker oil price momentum.
At the same time, oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz are gradually normalising as supply disruption fears continue to ease. The recovery of flows through one of the world’s most important energy routes has reduced the geopolitical risk premium that previously supported crude prices.
With Hormuz shipments improving and OPEC+ supply rising, traders are now pricing in a weaker near-term supply outlook. Unless demand improves meaningfully or geopolitical risks return, crude oil may remain under pressure as the market shifts further away from disruption fears and toward oversupply concerns.
Technical Analysis
Crude Oil, Daily:
Crude oil prices are trading lower, currently testing the 66.70 support level, which serves as a key downside pivot.
Market attention remains on a potential breakdown below this support zone. A confirmed break below 66.70 could extend losses toward the next support level at 56.65, reinforcing the broader bearish structure.
However, momentum indicators suggest that downside pressure may be easing. The MACD is showing diminishing bearish momentum, while the RSI at 28 remains near oversold territory, indicating the possibility of a short-term technical rebound.
If bearish momentum begins to fade, crude oil may recover and retest the 76.80 resistance level, followed by 86.90 if recovery momentum strengthens.
Resistance Levels: 76.80, 86.90
Support Levels: 66.70, 56.65
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