24/7 SUPPORT
Download App
Search
Popular Search
Published: 3 July 2026,06:17
Daily Market Analysis New
*Crude oil prices continue to fall as supply disruption fears ease
*Strait of Hormuz shipping flows improve as U.S.–Iran talks continue
*Contango in the prompt spread signals rising oversupply concerns
Crude oil prices continued to extend losses as fears of supply disruption eased further, with shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz continuing to recover while negotiations between the United States and Iran remain ongoing.
The improving supply outlook has shifted market sentiment significantly. The prompt spread for the global oil benchmark has been in contango for much of the week, a market structure that often signals oversupply or weaker near-term demand. This has added further pressure on crude prices as traders reduce expectations of prolonged supply tightness.
Saudi Arabian crude exports have also surged to around 90% of their pre-war levels as more of the kingdom’s tankers successfully pass through the critical waterway. The rebound in Saudi flows mirrors the recovery seen in the United Arab Emirates, suggesting that regional energy exports are gradually normalising.
Diplomatic developments have further supported the bearish tone in oil markets. Recent talks between the United States and Iran in Doha appeared to progress smoothly, with President Donald Trump stating in an interview with CNBC that the United States is still negotiating with Iran and that Tehran has “agreed to just about everything” Washington needs.
The positive discussions in Qatar have raised hopes that the interim 60-day truce between both sides could eventually be converted into a lasting peace arrangement. As a result, markets are increasingly pricing in a scenario where energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz continue to recover, reducing the geopolitical risk premium that had previously supported oil prices.
At the same time, a build-up of Iranian oil at sea has increased expectations that additional supply could return to the market if sanctions are eased or export conditions improve. Combined with recovering Gulf exports, this has strengthened concerns that the market could shift from supply shortage fears toward oversupply risks.
Overall, crude oil’s near-term outlook remains pressured as Hormuz flows normalise, regional exports recover, and U.S.–Iran negotiations continue to progress. If oil flows remain stable and diplomatic momentum continues, crude prices may extend losses further in the near term.
Technical Analysis
Crude Oil, Daily:
Crude oil prices are trading lower, currently testing the 66.70 support level, which acts as a key near-term floor.
Market attention remains on a potential breakdown below 66.70. A confirmed break could extend losses toward the next support level at 57.00, reinforcing the bearish structure.
However, momentum indicators suggest that downside pressure may be easing. The MACD is showing diminishing bearish momentum, while the RSI at 29 has entered oversold territory, indicating the possibility of a short-term technical rebound.
If bearish momentum fails to persist, crude oil may recover and retest the 76.80 resistance level, followed by 86.90 if recovery momentum strengthens.
Resistance Levels: 76.80, 86.90
Support Levels: 66.70, 57.00
Trade forex, indices, metal, and more at industry-low spreads and lightning-fast execution.
Sign up for a PU Prime Live Account with our hassle-free process.
Effortlessly fund your account with a wide range of channels and accepted currencies.
Access hundreds of instruments under market-leading trading conditions.
Trading Platforms
Learn
About PU Prime
Corporate
Important Notice to Visitors
Our products and services are not offered or made available to residents of your jurisdiction. The information on this Website is not directed at persons in your jurisdiction and is not intended as an offer, solicitation, or promotion of our products or services to them.
By clicking “I Understand”, you acknowledge this notice and confirm that you are accessing this Website at your own initiative. Access to this Website does not mean that our products or services are available to you.
Important Notice
Please be advised that our products and services are currently unavailable to residents and entities located in the Philippines.
This restriction is a result of our firm commitment to adhering to applicable legal and regulatory requirements in all jurisdictions where we operate. In line with our internal compliance protocols and evolving global standards, we continuously assess and update access to our platform to ensure full regulatory alignment.
We appreciate your understanding and cooperation.
If you believe this restriction has been applied in error, please contact our support team for further assistance.
Dear Valued Client,
As part of PU Prime’s ongoing commitment to providing a stable and reliable trading environment, please be informed of the following weekly weekend scheduled optimisation activities:
We sincerely apologise for any inconvenience this may cause as we strive to provide you with better service. PU Prime is committed to providing you with the best trading experience and this Weekly Scheduled Optimisation Notice will enable us to ensure that you trade without any unexpected interruptions.
For other upgrades that may involve longer disruptions to your trading, we will announce them ahead of time in a separate announcement.
Important Notice:
Important Notice: Please note the Website is intended for individuals residing in jurisdictions where accessing the Website is permitted by law.
Please note that PU Prime and its affiliated entities are neither established nor operating in your home jurisdiction.
By clicking the "Acknowledge" button, you confirm that you are entering this website solely on your own initiative and not as a result of any specific marketing outreach. You wish to obtain information from this website which is provided on a reverse solicitation basis in accordance with the laws of your home jurisdiction.
Important Notice:
Please note the Website is intended for individuals residing in jurisdictions where accessing the Website is permitted by law.
Please note that PU Prime and its affiliated entities are neither established nor operating in your home jurisdiction.
By clicking the "Acknowledge" button, you confirm that you are entering this website solely based on your initiative and not as a result of any specific marketing outreach. You wish to obtain information from this website which is provided on reverse solicitation in accordance with the laws of your home jurisdiction.
Aviso importante:
Ten en cuenta que el sitio web está destinado a personas que residen en jurisdicciones donde el acceso al sitio web está permitido por la ley.
Ten en cuenta que PU Prime y sus entidades afiliadas no están establecidas ni operan en tu jurisdicción de origen.
Al hacer clic en el botón "Aceptar", confirmas que estás ingresando a este sitio web por tu propia iniciativa y no como resultado de ningún esfuerzo de marketing específico. Deseas obtener información de este sitio web que se proporciona mediante solicitud inversa de acuerdo con las leyes de tu jurisdicción de origen.
