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Published: 1 May 2026,10:07
Daily Market Analysis New
Crude oil prices surged to their highest levels since 2022 before retracing slightly, as markets saw technical correction and profit-taking following a strong rally.
The broader trend remains supported, with oil prices continuing to gain amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. Donald Trump reiterated that the United States would maintain its naval blockade on Iranian oil flows, despite the ongoing ceasefire, as part of a strategy to increase pressure on Tehran.
On the other hand, Iranian officials have pushed back, stating that no agreement will be reached unless the United States revises its current terms. This ongoing standoff has prolonged uncertainty and reinforced concerns over global supply disruptions.
Adding to market tensions, reports indicate that U.S. military officials are preparing new strategic options for potential action in the Iran conflict. According to media sources, plans involving a series of “short and powerful” strikes are being considered as a way to break the current deadlock in negotiations.
The possibility of further escalation has intensified fears across energy markets, especially as peace talks appear to have stalled.
At the center of the crisis remains the Strait of Hormuz, which continues to face severe disruption. With the waterway effectively constrained, global oil supply flows remain under pressure, driving prices higher.
Overall, oil prices remain elevated due to a combination of geopolitical tensions, supply constraints, and ongoing uncertainty over negotiations.
While short-term pullbacks may occur due to technical factors, the broader outlook remains supported as long as:
Markets are expected to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, with oil prices likely to stay volatile and biased to the upside in the near term.
Technical Analysis
CL-Oil, H4
Crude oil prices have retraced from recent highs and are currently testing the 105.55 support level, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, marking a key near-term pivot.
Momentum is turning bearish, with the MACD strengthening to the downside and the RSI at 61 pulling back from overbought territory, suggesting increasing downside pressure.
A confirmed break below 105.55 could extend losses toward the next support at 99.45, signaling a deeper corrective phase.
However, if bearish momentum fails to sustain, prices may rebound toward the 111.65 resistance level, with further upside toward 120.30 if momentum recovers.
Resistance Levels: 111.65, 120.30
Support Levels: 105.55, 99.45
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