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Published: 29 April 2026,06:10
Daily Market Analysis New
*Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and elevated oil prices are boosting inflation fears, putting pressure on gold and silver.
*Expectations of a “higher-for-longer” policy from the Federal Reserve could strengthen the U.S. dollar and real yields, pressuring precious metals.
*Gold remains resilient but vulnerable to corrections, while silver may see amplified swings, with near-term direction hinging on Powell’s guidance and developments in the Middle East.
Market Summary:
Precious metals traders face a complex session on Wednesday as heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drive crude oil prices higher, while the Federal Reserve’s expected hawkish stance poses downside risks to non-yielding assets like gold and silver.
President Trump has directed aides to prepare for an extended U.S. blockade of Iran, indicating dissatisfaction with Tehran’s proposals regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing standoff has sustained significant disruptions to oil flows, pushing Brent crude prices well above $100 per barrel in recent sessions. This energy shock revives inflation concerns and bolsters gold’s appeal as a traditional safe-haven and inflation hedge in the short term. However, any signs of de-escalation or progress toward reopening key shipping routes could quickly ease risk premiums and reduce safe-haven demand.
The FOMC is widely anticipated to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range, with markets focusing on Chair Powell’s press conference for signals on the inflation path amid elevated energy costs. A relatively hawkish tone — emphasizing persistent inflation pressures and limited near-term rate cuts — would support a stronger U.S. dollar and higher real yields. Such conditions typically exert downward pressure on non-yielding precious metals by increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold and silver. Analysts note that gold and silver may encounter selling pressure if the Fed reinforces a “higher-for-longer” narrative.
Gold has shown resilience near recent highs but remains vulnerable to corrections if geopolitical risks moderate or the dollar strengthens further. Silver, with its additional industrial demand component, could exhibit higher volatility. While surging oil prices and Middle East uncertainties provide underlying support, the Fed’s policy communication is likely to dominate near-term price action.
Traders should monitor oil price movements, Powell’s commentary on inflation and growth risks, and any fresh developments on Iran negotiations closely. A balanced Fed message combined with sustained geopolitical strain may limit downside, whereas a firm hawkish tilt risks testing key support levels. Risk management and selective positioning remain critical in this volatile cross-asset environment.
Technical Analysis
XAUUSD, H4
Gold has suffered a structural breakdown, violating its uptrend support line near the recent peak and establishing a clear downtrend channel. The bearish bias remains dominant, with price action confined within descending parameters following the breakdown.
However, a doji candlestick has emerged in the latest session, suggesting a loss of directional momentum and raising the prospect of a near-term technical rebound. While the broader structure favors further downside, the doji indicates that selling pressure is pausing, and a short-lived relief rally toward the broken support line or channel resistance could materialize.
Immediate resistance sits at the former uptrend line near $4,750-$4,780, with deeper resistance at the channel’s upper boundary. Support remains at the recent lows near $4,600. The doji cautions against aggressive short positioning without confirmation of a continuation lower. A close above $4,750 would signal a deeper corrective bounce, while a break below $4,600 reaffirms the bearish trend.
Resistance Levels: 4725.65, 4865.30
Support Levels: 4461.35, 4331.30
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