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Markets Stay Cautious Despite Ceasefire Extension; Oil Holds Firm on Supply Risks

Published: 22 April 2026,07:01

Daily Market Analysis New

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Key Takeaways:

*Ceasefire extension reduces immediate escalation but fails to ease uncertainty

*Breakdown in negotiations highlights challenges for a lasting deal

*Strait of Hormuz disruptions keep energy supply risks elevated

*Oil prices remain supported as geopolitical risk premium persists

Market Summary:

Market sentiment remains cautious despite the United States extending its ceasefire with Iran indefinitely ahead of the deadline. While the move helps reduce immediate escalation risks, the broader outlook remains uncertain as planned negotiations have broken down and further talks have been cancelled. Iran has also rejected U.S. actions, labeling them as violations of the ceasefire, further complicating diplomatic progress and lowering confidence in a sustainable resolution.

At the center of market concerns is the Strait of Hormuz, where flows remain effectively constrained under a U.S. blockade. Given that the waterway is a critical artery for global energy supply, ongoing disruptions continue to cloud the outlook for oil markets and keep investors on edge.

Despite the ceasefire extension, crude oil prices have edged higher, reflecting persistent concerns over supply risks. The lack of concrete progress in negotiations, combined with continued restrictions on energy flows, has prevented a full unwind of the geopolitical risk premium. This suggests that while immediate escalation risks have eased, markets are still actively pricing in the possibility of further supply disruptions.

Overall, the current environment reflects a fragile balance between temporary de-escalation and unresolved structural risks, leaving both energy markets and broader sentiment highly sensitive to further geopolitical developments.

Technical Analysis

CL-Oil, H4:

Crude oil prices are trading higher after a breakout above the 86.90 resistance level, reinforcing a short-term bullish structure.

Momentum remains supportive, with the MACD strengthening and the RSI at 54 above the midline, indicating sustained buying interest and potential for further upside.

If bullish momentum persists, prices could extend gains toward the next resistance at 93.15, with further upside toward 100.85 if momentum strengthens.

However, if buying pressure begins to fade, a technical pullback may occur, with prices likely to retest the 86.90 support level, followed by 79.85 if selling pressure intensifies.

Resistance Levels: 93.15, 100.85

Support Levels: 86.90, 79.85

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