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Published: 15 April 2026,05:44
Daily Market Analysis New
*U.S.–Iran tensions remain unstable but show signs of short-term easing
*Oil prices reverse sharply after renewed ceasefire discussions
*Strait of Hormuz risks still a key driver for global oil supply
Market Summary:
Crude oil prices turned sharply lower as geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran showed signs of easing, despite continued uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
Over the weekend, both sides failed to reach a consensus, prompting the United States to implement stricter enforcement measures around the Strait of Hormuz. The move aimed to restrict Iranian oil shipments and pressure Tehran by limiting its energy revenues. In response, Iran reportedly considered a temporary pause in shipments through the strait to avoid direct confrontation, which initially heightened fears of supply disruption and pushed oil prices higher at the start of the week.
However, market sentiment shifted quickly after both sides signaled a willingness to resume negotiations. Discussions are expected to continue in the coming days, potentially returning to Pakistan, where earlier talks were held. Donald Trump also indicated that the conflict may be nearing a resolution, further easing concerns over prolonged supply disruptions.
As a result, oil prices reversed sharply, with Brent crude falling for a second consecutive session to around $94.40 per barrel. The decline reflects easing fears of near-term supply disruption, even as underlying geopolitical risks remain unresolved.
Overall, the oil market remains highly sensitive to developments in U.S.–Iran relations. While renewed ceasefire talks have reduced immediate downside risks, continued uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and evolving policy measures are likely to keep oil prices volatile in the near term.
Technical Analysis
CL-Oil, H4
Crude oil prices are trading lower following a breakdown below both the ascending trendline and the key support at 93.15, confirming a bearish shift in market structure.
Momentum indicators reinforce the downside bias, with the MACD expanding to the downside and the RSI at 34 below the midline, indicating sustained selling pressure.
With this double breakdown (trendline + horizontal support), bearish momentum could extend losses toward the next support at 86.95, with further downside toward 79.85 if pressure intensifies.
However, if selling momentum begins to fade, a technical rebound may occur, with prices likely to retest 93.15 as resistance.
Resistance Levels: 93.15, 101.65
Support Levels: 86.95, 79.85
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