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Published: 14 April 2026,05:48
Daily Market Analysis New
*U.S.–Iran discussions to resume after failed initial negotiations
*Trump signals potential Strait of Hormuz blockade, raising supply risks
*Oil prices spike then reverse as ceasefire hopes re-emerge
*Market volatility driven by shifting geopolitical headlines
Market Summary:
Crude oil prices turned highly volatile as geopolitical developments between the United States and Iran continued to shift rapidly between escalation and renewed diplomatic efforts.
Recent talks led by JD Vance failed to produce a breakthrough, initially raising concerns over prolonged conflict. In response, Donald Trump signaled a more aggressive stance, vowing to begin a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — a move that could significantly disrupt global oil supply and escalate tensions further.
However, sentiment shifted shortly afterward as both sides indicated a willingness to return to the negotiating table. Trump later confirmed that Iran had reached out to resume discussions, raising hopes for a potential longer-term ceasefire agreement.
Oil prices initially surged at the start of the week, as markets priced in the risk of supply disruptions should a blockade materialize. However, gains were quickly reversed as renewed diplomatic signals reduced immediate concerns over supply shortages.
The back-and-forth nature of developments has created significant volatility in oil prices, with markets reacting rapidly to headlines. As a result, investor sentiment remains fragile, with traders struggling to establish clear directional bias.
Technical Analysis
CL-Oil, H4
Crude oil prices are trading lower after a breakdown below the 99.75 support level, signaling increasing bearish pressure.
Momentum indicators confirm the downside bias, with the MACD strengthening to the downside and the RSI at 34 below the midline, suggesting further downside potential.
If bearish momentum persists, prices could extend losses toward the next support at 92.65, with deeper downside toward 86.85.
However, if selling pressure begins to fade, a technical rebound may occur, with prices likely to retest 99.75 as resistance.
Resistance Levels: 99.75, 107.70
Support Levels: 92.65,86.85
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