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Oil Jumps Above $109 on Escalation Fears; Strait of Hormuz Risks Intensify

Published: 3 April 2026,06:28

Daily Market Analysis New

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Key Takeaways:

*Crude oil surges over 11% in a single session

*Trump signals escalation, raising supply disruption risks

*Strait of Hormuz concerns remain central to market volatility

*Risk of retaliation and infrastructure attacks keeps outlook uncertain

Market Summary:

Crude oil prices surged sharply, settling near $109 per barrel after rising more than 11% in a single session, as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran heightened concerns over global energy supply disruptions.

The rally was driven by remarks from Donald Trump, who signaled a potential escalation in the conflict over the coming weeks. Trump warned that the United States would “hit” Iran hard within the next two to three weeks, raising fears that the conflict could broaden and further disrupt energy flows.

Market concerns remain centered on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments. Trump suggested that the strait could reopen naturally after the conflict ends, though he did not provide a clear timeline or details on how this would be achieved.

Despite these remarks, several analysts have expressed skepticism over the feasibility of reopening the strait through military means, warning that such actions could instead trigger further escalation. Investors remain cautious that Iran may respond with more aggressive measures, particularly targeting oil infrastructure and shipping routes across the region.

Both sides have increasingly focused on energy assets, including oil facilities and transport infrastructure, raising the risk of prolonged supply disruptions. This has added to market volatility and reinforced the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices.

With tensions continuing to escalate and uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the conflict, oil prices are likely to remain highly volatile in the near term, with markets closely monitoring developments for clearer direction.

Technical Analysis

CL-Oil, H4

Crude oil prices are trading higher, currently testing the 113.55 resistance level, a key near-term breakout zone.

A confirmed break above 113.55 could drive further upside toward 119.35, reinforcing the bullish trend.

However, momentum indicators are showing early signs of exhaustion. The MACD is flattening, while the RSI at 66 is approaching overbought territory, suggesting a potential near-term technical correction.

If bullish momentum weakens, prices may pull back toward the 106.65 support level, which remains critical to maintaining the broader uptrend.

Resistance Levels: 113.55, 119.35

Support Levels: 106.65, 101.55

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