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Published: 1 April 2026,07:05
Chart The Market
NZDUSD, H4:
NZD/USD pair has been in a clear downtrend throughout late March into early April 2026, trading near the 0.5750 level with a modest recovery visible in the most recent candles. Price action shows a series of lower highs and lower lows since mid-March, with the pair breaking below several horizontal support zones around 0.5795, 0.5840, and 0.5890 before finding temporary footing near the 0.5700 area as a multi-month low zone. The latest uptick from around 0.5700 suggests short-term buying interest, but the overall structure remains bearish as the price stays well below the descending trendline and previous swing highs.
Momentum indicators reflect a deeply oversold condition that may be setting up for a relief bounce. The RSI sits at approximately 48, having climbed from lower levels near 33–40 but still hovering in neutral-to-weak territory without showing strong bullish divergence yet. The MACD histogram has turned slightly less negative, with the signal line showing early signs of flattening, though the overall MACD remains below the zero line and the orange signal line, indicating that bearish momentum has slowed but not fully reversed. These readings suggest sellers are losing steam in the very short term, potentially allowing for a corrective move higher before any resumption of the broader downtrend.
Overall, the 4H technical picture for NZD/USD is cautiously bearish with signs of short-term exhaustion. Traders may look for a corrective rally toward the 0.5795–0.5840 zone if the current green candles hold, but any failure to reclaim higher levels would likely see renewed selling pressure, keeping the path of least resistance downward in line with the dominant trend. Volume and upcoming RBNZ-related developments could influence whether this bounce extends or fades quickly.
Resistance Levels: 0.5750, 0.5795
Support Levels: 0.5700, 0.5650
USDJPY, H4
USD/JPY pair has been trading within a strong uptrend since early March 2026, consistently making higher highs and higher lows until late March. However, the most recent price action shows a noticeable pullback developing after the pair peaked near the 160.00 psychological level. Price has declined sharply from the highs around 160.00, breaking below the 159.60 and 159.20 levels, and is currently trading near 158.60 with a red candle indicating continued short-term selling pressure.
The structure remains overall bullish on the medium term, but momentum has clearly weakened. The RSI has dropped to 34, moving into oversold territory and showing a clear loss of upward momentum compared to the price highs made in late March. The MACD histogram has turned negative, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum in the short term. This divergence between price making new highs earlier while RSI failed to confirm suggests a possible exhaustion in the uptrend.
Overall, the 4H technical outlook for USD/JPY is bullish but corrective. The pair is experiencing a healthy pullback after an extended rally, with momentum indicators flashing short-term oversold conditions. Traders should watch for signs of stabilization or a bullish reversal candle near the 158.30–158.70 support zone for potential long entries targeting a retest of 159.50. However, failure to hold above 158.30 would increase the risk of a deeper correction, potentially shifting the short-term bias to neutral or bearish. Upcoming US data and any comments from Bank of Japan officials remain key event risks that could influence the next directional move.
Resistance Levels: 159.20, 159.60
Support Levels: 158.70, 158.30
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