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Published: 1 April 2026,06:37
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*The Euro strengthened after CPI rose to 2.5%, with energy prices driving inflation back toward the European Central Bank target.
*Sticky inflation reduced rate-cut expectations, pushing EUR/USD higher toward 1.155.
*Focus shifts to unemployment—steady data could support EUR, while any uptick may revive easing bets and pressure the currency.
The euro strengthened in the previous trading session following the release of Eurozone flash CPI data for March. Headline inflation rose to 2.5% year-on-year, up sharply from 1.9% in February but slightly below consensus expectations of 2.6%. The increase was driven primarily by a 4.9% surge in energy prices—the first annual rise in nearly a year—linked to ongoing Middle East tensions. Core inflation eased modestly to 2.3% from 2.4%, aligning with forecasts as services and non-energy goods pressures moderated.
Despite the marginal undershoot on headline figures, the energy-driven rebound signaled persistent inflationary risks above the ECB’s 2% target. This tempered expectations for near-term rate cuts, supporting EUR/USD. The pair advanced approximately 0.7% to close near 1.155 levels, reflecting a hawkish tilt in market pricing for ECB policy.
Attention now shifts to the February Eurozone unemployment rate, scheduled for release today. Consensus forecasts project the rate to remain unchanged at 6.1%, matching January’s record low. A stable or better-than-expected print would underscore labour-market resilience, potentially reinforcing expectations of a cautious ECB stance amid sticky inflation. This could provide additional tailwinds for the euro, particularly if wage pressures remain contained.
Conversely, an unexpected uptick would highlight softening demand, opening scope for more accommodative policy and exerting downward pressure on EUR/USD. Geopolitical uncertainties and energy volatility continue to dominate the broader backdrop, with traders monitoring any deviation from consensus for directional cues.
Technical Analysis
The EURUSD pair staged a strong rebound from support at the 1.1465 level, but the recovery has been halted as price approaches the long-term downtrend resistance line that has capped upside attempts since the January peak. This rejection reinforces the prevailing bearish structure, with sellers defending the trendline decisively.
Unless the pair can break above this resistance line, it is expected to remain suppressed beneath it, continuing to trade within its current bearish trajectory. A sustained move above the trendline would be required to challenge the negative bias and open a path toward the 1.1650-1.1680 region. However, the repeated rejections suggest that selling pressure remains dominant at current levels.
Immediate support rests at the 1.1465 level, with a break below this zone exposing the next downside targets near 1.1400 and the 1.1350 region. Momentum indicators remain in bearish territory, with the Relative Strength Index holding below the 50-midpoint and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence maintaining its negative configuration. For now, the path of least resistance remains lower, with rallies likely to attract renewed selling interest.
Resistance Levels: 1.1584, 1.1713
Support Levels: 1.1468, 1.1340
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