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Published: 25 February 2026,06:54
Daily Market Analysis New
*Gold’s recent drop reflects profit-taking and a firmer dollar rather than a shift in the broader bullish structure.
*Persistent trade uncertainty tied to Donald Trump continues to underpin safe-haven demand.
*Rising US–Iran tensions are helping place a geopolitical floor under bullion prices.
Market Summary:
Gold prices have entered a corrective pullback phase after recently touching a more than three-week high, as a firmer US dollar and profit-taking pressure temporarily outweighed safe-haven demand. Spot gold dropped roughly 1–1.5% toward the $5,140–$5,170 region, snapping a four-session winning streak. The immediate catalyst was the rebound in the greenback, which mechanically makes dollar-denominated bullion more expensive for foreign buyers and typically triggers short-term liquidation.
Despite the pullback, the macro backdrop remains structurally supportive for bullion. Trade tensions continue to simmer after Donald Trump threatened significantly higher duties if countries “play games” with US trade deals. The rollout of a new 10% global tariff, alongside preparations to potentially raise it to 15%, has kept geopolitical and policy risk elevated. Historically, persistent trade uncertainty tends to underpin strategic gold demand even during tactical corrections.
Geopolitical risk in the Middle East is providing an additional floor. The United States has begun withdrawing non-essential personnel from its Beirut embassy, while Washington and Tehran are scheduled to hold another round of nuclear talks in Geneva. Markets remain sensitive to any signs of escalation between the US and Iran, and analysts widely note that safe-haven flows into gold typically accelerate if diplomatic progress stalls. This backdrop explains why recent declines are widely viewed as profit-taking rather than a trend reversal.
Monetary policy expectations are the other key swing factor. While Fed officials have recently struck a cautious tone that helped lift the dollar and pressure gold, markets still anticipate roughly 50–75 basis points of easing this year. If incoming US data weakens and rate-cut bets rebuild, real yields could fall and re-ignite bullion’s upward momentum. For now, gold appears to be in a consolidation phase with downside limited by geopolitical risk and trade uncertainty, but upside extensions will likely require either renewed dollar weakness or a fresh risk-off catalyst.
Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating after a strong impulsive rally that pushed price toward the recent swing high near 5,236.70. The broader structure shows that gold rebounded firmly from the 4,500–4,750 support region earlier this month and has since transitioned into a higher-high, higher-low formation. However, current price action suggests momentum is beginning to moderate as the market stalls just below the recent top.Technically, price is holding above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level around 5,161.30, which is now acting as immediate support. As long as this level remains intact, the short-term bullish structure stays valid.
Momentum indicators are showing early signs of cooling. RSI has pulled back from near-overbought territory and is currently hovering around the low-60s, forming a mild bearish divergence against recent price highs. This suggests upside momentum is fading even though price remains elevated. Meanwhile, MACD remains in positive territory, but the histogram has started to contract and the MACD line is flattening near the signal line, reflecting slowing bullish momentum rather than fresh acceleration.
Overall, gold on the chart remains structurally constructive above 5,161, but the rally is losing strength in the near term. The market appears to be in a pause or shallow pullback phase unless buyers can decisively clear 5,236 resistance.
Resistance Levels: 5236.70, 5340.00
Support Levels: 5035.00, 4910.00
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