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Published: 20 June 2025,03:31
Chart The Market
AUDUSD, H4:
AUD/USD continues to trade within a choppy consolidation range, holding just beneath the 0.6500 psychological level after multiple failed attempts to reclaim the 0.6525 resistance zone. Price action remains supported above the 0.6455 region, which has consistently cushioned recent pullbacks. This sideways drift follows a breakdown below the 50-day moving average, with bulls now attempting a short-term recovery of support—though technical conviction remains fragile.
Momentum indicators paint a cautious picture.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced modestly off oversold conditions and now prints around 46, showing tentative recovery but still below the midpoint of 50. This signals that bullish momentum is improving, albeit without strong follow-through. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram is beginning to flatten near the zero line, and the MACD line has just nudged above the signal line. This nascent bullish crossover suggests early signs of a potential reversal, though confirmation remains pending.
Moving averages underline the neutral-to-bearish tone.The 20- and 50-day SMAs have both flattened and now hover close to price action, while the 100-day SMA at 0.6504 continues to act as a dynamic resistance cap. Unless bulls can decisively reclaim and close above the 0.6485–0.6525 barrier, upward momentum may stall once more.
In the near term, AUD/USD faces a pivotal inflection point.A firm break and close above 0.6526 would open the door toward the 0.6570 region and shift momentum more decisively in the bulls’ favor. Conversely, failure to sustain recovery from current levels could see renewed downside pressure, with immediate support at 0.6455, and a deeper test of 0.6410 increasingly likely if bearish sentiment regains control. Price action in the coming sessions will be critical in determining whether AUD/USD can transition from consolidation into a directional move.
Resistance Levels: 0.6525, 0.6570
Support Levels: 0.6455, 0.6410
NZDUSD, H4
NZD/USD has staged a modest rebound after finding support near the 0.5970 level, recovering to the psychological 0.6020 handle. This follows a failed breakdown attempt from the descending channel that had guided price action lower in recent sessions. Despite this short-term recovery, broader price structure remains fragile, with overhead resistance forming near the 50-day SMA and the 0.6020 zone.
Momentum signals offer mixed readings.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has edged higher to 45, reflecting a mild uptick in bullish momentum but still below the neutral 50 threshold. This suggests the current bounce may lack strength unless reinforced by sustained follow-through. Meanwhile, the MACD remains in bearish territory, with the MACD line hovering just below the signal line and the histogram still in negative territory. The absence of a clear bullish crossover underscores that downside risk has not yet been fully neutralized.
Moving averages highlight the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.The 20- and 50-day SMAs have both flattened, while the 100-day SMA at 0.6030 looms as near-term resistance. Failure to reclaim this level could prompt another retest of the 0.5970 floor, with a deeper breakdown potentially exposing 0.5925 and 0.5890 supports.
Structurally, NZD/USD is approaching an inflection zone. A confirmed break and daily close above 0.6033 would invalidate the recent bearish channel and pave the way for a push toward the 0.6080 region. However, if bullish efforts stall below the moving averages, renewed downside pressure could resume, with 0.5970 and 0.5925 acting as initial targets. The next few sessions will be key in determining whether this rebound marks the start of a broader trend reversal or simply a corrective pause within a larger bearish setup.
Resistance Levels: 0.6020, 0.6080
Support Levels: 0.5970, 0.5925
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